Technical analysts see warning signs that the much anticipated correction may be on its way, possibly in September. JPMorgan’s Jason Hunter said the market could see a sell-off of as much as 8 percent in the S&P 500 as soon as next month. That would be the biggest drop since the double-digit decline that ended in February 2016. “That is the weakest month. If you actually look at statistics, October is bad, but it’s only the first two weeks. The entirety of September is usually bad for the equity market,” said Hunter, who is head of fixed income and equities technical analysis. Hunter has been warning of signs of a breakdown for some time, including in the Nasdaq 100, which showed weakness in July and earlier this month. Hunter said if the S&P 500 breaks below 2,400, that would be a sign to him that more selling is coming, and a correction could take the market down to 2,300. The S&P 500 closed at 2,428 Monday afternoon, a gain of nearly 3 points. He said 2,300 could be a quick, temporary bottom and bring in buyers. “We’ve already suggested people should unwind risks. It’s time to reduce those positions now,” said Hunter. coming back. Nick Note: What will start as a correction will end up in the biggest stock market wipeout ever. Its the old Wall Street trick. Convince the suckers the coming stock market plunge is a small correction “buying opportunity” how stupid. Grossly over valued markets do not correct. They crash and wipe out!
A graph of the S&P 500 Index, below, explains the stock market’s reaction to President Trump’s very bad week and helps to quantify the risks associated with political problems. In the S&P 500 SPX, +0.09% graph, you can see that there are two upward sloping trend lines, one in red and the other in blue. The red trend line exists within the wider and longer blue trend line, but both are upward sloping.
Looking at the origination dates of each of those trends, we can see that the blue trend began at the beginning of 2016 and the red one started close to the beginning of 2017. Clearly, the upward sloping channel defined by the red trend line has a tighter magnitude than the longer-term and wider blue channel. But what do those represent? The blue channel began almost exactly when the European Central Bank began buying corporate bonds in the open market, so we have coined this the “stimulus channel.” We can see from observing this channel that the market moved back and forth between support and resistance, as defined by the blue trend lines nicely before 2017, and then it became even more one-sided.
The red channel began on the heels of the presidential election, and we have coined this the “Trump trend.” The more aggressive red channel had far less volatility, and given its starting point, we could comfortably surmise that this was due to hopes for added values from the pro-business, lower-tax agenda of President Trump. But the support line of the red upward sloping channel is beginning to break. Graphically, we can see that the Trump trend is starting to break, and that brings the stimulus channel into the picture again. Based on price, the market is telling us that it is losing confidence in the president, but stimulus monies are still flowing from the ECB.
The former Republican Congressman from Texas believes escalating dysfunction in Washington will create even more pain for Wall Street. “A 50 percent pullback is conceivable,” Paul said on “Futures Now” recently. “I don’t believe it’s ten years off. I don’t even believe it’s a year off. ” Paul noted that there’s a lot of chaos in Washington right now, with an “unpredictable president” and those who are inclined to “tear him apart” but if the market takes that big of a tumble, he doesn’t see it as Trump’s fault. “It’s all man-made. It’s not the fault of Donald Trump in the last week. If the market crashes tomorrow and we have a great depression, he didn’t do it in six months. It took more like six or ten years to cause all these problems that we’re facing,” he said. He argued Wall Street is overestimating the strength of the economy, and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long. He said the situation for stocks could turn ugly as soon as October. “I see the foundation of our system built on sand, and a big wind comes along to blow it down,” Paul said.Nick Note: we have already enteredo a recession that will soon turn into the Trump Depression. With a stock market collapse, real estate wipe out and race wars in the cities. And the rise of Fascism. Led by Donald Trump. its always that way when people are losing everthing
Foot Locker shares plummeted by 25 percent on Friday after the company’s quarterly results missed expectations by a wide margin. The athletic apparel retailer posted adjusted earnings per share of 62 cents on revenue of $1.701 billion for the second quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected the company to report earnings per share of 90 cents on sales of $1.8 billion. Same-store sales, a key metric closely watched by Wall Street, fell 6 percent year over year. Analysts polled by StreetAccount expected an increase of 1 percent. Chairman and CEO Richard Johnson said in a statement that “sales of some recent top styles fell well short of our expectations and impacted this quarter’s results. At the same time, we were affected by the limited availability of innovative new products in the market.” Nick Note: it is obvious that the crunch is coming. As you can see the economy is sucking shut. The next great depression has started… its in the very very early stages. The job description is to get their first and make money.
Having washed his hands of his CEO councils on Wednesday (after the CEOs ditched him first), President Trump is now on his own in terms of coming up with the best ideas and solutions to shift the U.S. economy into a higher gear. This shouldn’t be a problem. right? After all, “Like I’m a really smart person,” he has famously said. So with a big brain like that, he should be able to fix everything. At least that’s what he says. We’re waiting, Mr. President.
There are economic warning signs as well. Here’s a sampling:
• Consumers are falling behind again. After years of clawing their way back after the disastrous 2007-09 economic collapse, consumers—two-thirds of U.S. economic activity—are once again falling deeper into debt. Data released this week by the New York Fed says red ink is growing across the board—mortgages, auto loans, credit cards—and totaled $12.84 trillion in the second quarter of 2017.
• The stock market’s gains are slowing. After hitting a recession low of 666 in March 2009, the S&P 500 SPX, -1.54% soared to 2,139 on Election Day—a rip-roaring gain of 221% in more than 7½ years. In the nine months since Tump’s election, the S&P has risen another 15.7%. That’s a healthy rise, no question—but on an annualized basis, the monster 2009-16 rally dwarfs what we’ve seen so far under Trump. Folks forget that Trump warned of an equities bubble a year ago. He said things could get ugly. Valuations appear even more stretched today.
• Job growth is slowing. During the first seven months of 2017, 1.29 million part time jobs were added to the economy. In the last seven months of 2016, 1.46 million were. That’s according to statistics from Trump’s very own U.S. Department of Labor, which also reports the unemployment rate is at a 16-year low.
The Federal Reserve says factory production dropped 0.1 percent last month. Overall industrial production — which adds output by mines and utilities — rose 0.2 percent. Mining output rose 0.5 percent, and utility production rose 1.6 percent. The drop in automotive production was partially offset by a 0.2 percent rise in other manufacturing production. American manufacturers had bounced back from a slump in late 2015 and early 2016 caused by cutbacks in the energy industry and a strong dollar, which makes U.S. goods costlier in foreign markets. But the Fed says manufacturing output has been flat since February.
—Reuters contributed to this report.
Nick Note: I though America WAS going to be great again. And bring back factory jobs was key. Something went wrong with the bull shit…. its called reality. But don’t let facts get in the way of a good Wall Street con jib
Mid-Atlantic manufacturers reported slightly slower, but slightly positive, growth in August, according to a report out Thursday. The factory activity survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve fell to 18.9 from 19.5, the regional bank said. The new orders gauge surged to 20.4 from 2.1, signalling stronger growth in the future, and the measure of shipments jumped to 29.4 from 12.2. The two index components that cover labor were mixed. The gauge of number of employees fell to 10.1 from 10.9, while the average workweek rose to 18.8 from 3.8. Nick Note: these touchy feely good time Charlie indexes can change at the blink of a eye.
Formerly regional Fed president Kocherlakota says accepting Trump offer could stain Janet Yellen’s reputation
A former colleague of Federal Reserve boss Janet Yellen said she should walk away from the central bank at the end of her term in 2018 to preserve her reputation even if President Trump reappoints her. Narayana Kocherlakota, former president of the Minneapolis Fed, said Yellen’s “outstanding” record as Fed chairwoman could be tarnished if she accepted an offer by Trump to stay on the job. Kocherlakota had previously said she should be reappointed. Yellen’s term expires early next year. Although Trump was critical of her during the presidential campaign, he has been more conciliatory since becoming president. She and White House economic adviser Gary Cohen are viewed as the frontrunners for the top Fed job, though Cohn has been seen as the favorite, given his close ties to Trump. Cohn’s status has come into question this week, however, as infighting among senior White House aides flared in public after a controversial interview by Steve Bannon. Bannon said he was fighting back every day against policies supported by Cohn, a former Wall Street banker. Virtually of all the calls for officials to desert Trump are coming from Democrats opposed to the administration. Republicans have not followed suit. Nick Note: many people know Trump will start the next great depression. the smart money is getting out while the getting is good
Billionaire hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman revealed he bought protection against a stock market drop due to rising geopolitical risk. Ackman said the firm took a “small position” in out of the money call options on a volatility index during Pershing Square Capital Management’s second-quarter conference call Wednesday. This hedge “will protect against stock market risk,” he said, specifically citing a potential conflict on the Korean peninsula. Nick Note: protection from a stock market wipeout is on thing. The art is TO MAKE A SHIT POT FULL OF MONEY. And that is job one for us.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve policymakers appeared increasingly wary about recent weak inflation and some called for a halt to further interest rate hikes until it was clear the trend was transitory, according to the minutes of the central bank’s last policy meeting. In the minutes, released on Wednesday, policymakers had a lengthy discussion about a recent streak of soft inflation readings. Inflation has remained below the central bank’s 2 percent target for more than five years. “Many participants … saw some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2 percent for longer than they currently expected, and several indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook could be tilted to the downside,” the Fed said in the minutes. Some participants on the policy-setting committee argued against further rate rises until data had confirmed inflation was moving back toward the Fed’s objective. Nick Note: Can you see it. Their dynamic mathematical models just does not get DEFLATION.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Homebuilders pulled back sharply on construction of apartment complexes in July, causing housing starts to tumble to a three-month low. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that housing starts fell 4.8 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.16 million. Groundbreakings for multi-family buildings such as apartments slumped 17.1 percent, while single-family house construction slipped 0.5 percent. Housing starts dropped in the Northeast, Midwest and West but rose modestly in the South. Building permits, an indicator of future construction, decreased 4.1 percent to 1.22 million.While home construction has increased, it’s done little to ease the pressure from a decline in listings for existing homes — a much larger segment of the housing market. Nick Note: another sign of the looming wipeout. Don’t relive the Realtor bullshit. Pure and simple builders have pulled back. And the reason s homes are NOT selling. Wake up and smell the century wipe out.
Leading Federal Reserve policymaker Stanley Fischer has hit out at plans to unwind banking regulation, brandishing it a “terrible mistake.” In an interview with the Financial Times, Fischer said that efforts by the U.S. administration to strip back the rules put in place 10 years ago would lead large institutions to return to the status quo that led to the financial crisis.President Donald Trump and republican politicians have advocated the repeal of Dodd Frank, a major piece of post-crisis legislation, and the loosening of some capital and liquidity requirements in a bid to ease banks’ ability to lend. “It took almost 80 years after 1930 to have another financial crisis that could have been of that magnitude. And now after 10 years everybody wants to go back to a status quo before the great financial crisis,” Fischer, the vice-chairman of the Fed’s board of governors, said. “I find that really, extremely dangerous and extremely short-sighted.”
Nick Note: they are are rolling back the regulations and they are are lowering the capital on the dead broke and going broke banks. At least one half way clued in official has come forward. We are GUARANTEED the biggest bank wipe out ever. You have little time left to stuff your lumpy mattress and get you trades lined up.
U.S. business inventories recorded their biggest increase in seven months in June. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that business inventories rose 0.5 percent after an unrevised 0.3 percent increase in May. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product. Retail inventories gained 0.6 percent in June as announced in an advance report last month. Retail inventories rose 0.6 percent in May. Motor vehicle inventories increased 0.7 percent as previously reported after surging 1.2 percent in May. Retail inventories excluding autos, which go into the calculation of GDP, increased 0.5 percent as reported last month. They rose 0.2 percent in May. Inventory investment had a neutral impact on the second quarter’s 2.6 percent annualized growth pace after chopping off 1.46 percentage points at the start of the year. Business sales rose 0.3 percent in June after edging up 0.1 percent in May. At June’s sales pace, it would take 1.38 months for businesses to clear shelves, up from 1.37 months in May. The inventories-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles was unchanged at 2.25 months in June. Nick Note: sales backing up especially autos and inventories increasing. its pretty obvious what is going on
The stock market is overvalued according to almost any standard valuation measure, and it’s at such times that, to use the famous phrase from hedge fund manager Doug Kass, risk happens fast. Consider how quickly some stocks dropped from their highs at the top of the internet bubble in March 2000 — one of the few times in U.S. history when the stock market was just as overvalued as today. It took just three trading sessions back then for the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.11% to drop 10% from its all-time high — satisfying in a blink of an eye the semi-official criterion of a market correction. And it took just 17 sessions for the Nasdaq to drop enough — a 20% decline — to become a major bear market. We all need to remember that when the stock market is hugely overvalued, as it is today, a major bear market can begin for seemingly no external reason. How overvalued is the stock market? The chart below paints the depressing picture: According to six widely-used valuation measures, the market currently is more overvalued than it was at between 86% and 100% of the three dozen bull market tops since 1900. (I relied on a bull market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research for a precise list of those market tops.)
To be sure, the U.S. market by most measures was more overvalued at the top of the internet bubble than it is today. But not according to all of them. The S&P’s 500’s price-to-sales ratio currently is just as high, if not slightly higher, than where it stood in March 2000. When stocks are as overvalued as they are today, almost anything can become a bear market trigger. And sometimes it takes nothing at all. Nick Note: One day soon you are going to wake up to a crashing stock market that will go down and stay down for a decade or more. And if your positioned right you could become fabulously wealthy.
Americans are increasingly delinquent on their credit-card debt. Credit-card delinquencies have increased in recent months, according to a new report released Tuesday by the New York Federal Reserve. Some 4.4% of credit-card debt became newly delinquent in the second quarter of 2017, up from about 3.5% in the second quarter of 2016. This compares to rates between 8% and nearly 11% during the peak of the recession.
There were also increases in mortgage and auto debt in the second quarter of 2017, the New York Fed found. Total household debt now amounts to $12.84 trillion in the second quarter of 2017, up 0.9% since the first quarter. Mortgage debt increased 0.7% and auto debt increased 2%, compared to a 2.6% rise in credit card debt. Total mortgage debt now amounts to $8.69 trillion, up $329 billion since last year. Auto loan debt now amounts to $1.19 trillion, up $87 billion since last year. And student loan debt amounts to $1.34 trillion, up $85 billion since last year. The country also hit a scary milestone earlier this month: Americans now collectively have the most outstanding revolving debt — often summarized as credit card debt — in U.S. history, according to a report released this month by the Federal Reserve. Americans had $1.021 trillion in outstanding revolving credit in June 2017. This beats the previous record in April 2008, when consumers had a collective $1.02 trillion in outstanding credit revolving credit.
“This record should serve as a wake-up call to Americans to focus on their credit card debt,” said Matt Schulz, a senior industry analyst at CreditCards.com, a credit card website. Nick Note: The most debt ever and growing. And reported deliquesces get bigger and bigger each month. A dire warning sign of the coming wipe out. talk about the new slavery. Debt Slaves are slaves with no chains. John C. Calhoun would be proud!
Its amazing to me how little Americas really know about the history of slavery. Slavery is a economic event not a political one. Their are many ways to be a slave.
The IMF issued its annual review of China on Tuesday, and has revised its growth forecast to 6.7 percent for 2017. The organization also said it expects China to average 6.4 percent growth between now and 2021, versus its previous estimate of 6 percent.
What Beijing needs to do is to seize its current strong growth momentum “to accelerate needed reforms and focus more on the quality and sustainability of growth,” said the report. At the top of that list is working to tackle the debt issue: Going forward, the IMF sees China’s non-financial sector debt to hit nearly 300 percent of GDP by 2022, up from around 240 percent last year. Debt-fueled growth, the IMF warned, is a short-term solution that isn’t sustainable in the long run unless China tackles deeper structural issues. Experts have been sounding the alarm bell over this issue for years, urging China to rein in its old model of opening credit lines to fuel investment and spending and to find a better balance between supporting growth and controlling risks to the economy. Chinese banks extended 825.5 billion yuan (about $123.44 billion) in new loans in July, down from 1.54 trillion yuan in June. Outstanding total social financing — a broad measure of credit and liquidity — came in at 1.22 trillion yuan last month versus 1.78 trillion yuan in June. Part of the drop is seasonal, and it’s “masking an uptick in underlying credit growth,” wrote China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics. A better way to look at credit creation is to gauge growth in outstanding bank loans and total social financing, both of which rose roughly 13 percent in July versus the same period last year. Nick Note: how ever the IMF wants to sugar coat it before the peoples Congress. China’s massive debt expanded at 3 times GDP. Its massive exploding debt load will be its undoing. And EVERYONE associated with China and its debt will be destroyed in the coming wipeout.
The CBOE volatility index, widely regarded as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” that measures implied market volatility, has traded in a narrow range this year, at one point hitting its lowest level on record. But all that’s about to change, one market strategist forecast in a note to clients on Tuesday. “We experienced a tremor last week, the bull has been wounded — a warning of things to come. We believe a new vol (volatility) regime is upon us — the VIX will touch 60 before we have pumpkins on our doorsteps,” wrote Larry McDonald, head of global macro strategy and managing director at ACG Analytics. The index, which closed on Tuesday at 12.04, would have to rise nearly 400 percent in a matter of months to touch the 60 mark, which it has not done since December of 2008 in the midst of the global financial crisis. Nick Note: As you know we have a position in the VIX though a very special ETF. I urge you to make this trade. We are getting close to the greatest stock market wipe out in history. And i don’t want you hurt. AND i want to make you rich!
(Reuters) – That fund managers are rewarded for hugging the benchmarks they track is a big reason behind the otherwise puzzlingly mild reaction of financial markets to rising tensions and threats between nuclear powers the United States and North Korea. No one, and I mean this in the nicest, most humane way, no one is paid to help clients avoid the kind of massive stock market downdraft we’d see if the two went to war. Besides being, like the rest of us, badly positioned to predict what will happen, fund managers face disproportionately large career and portfolio risks if they try to sell up to prepare for a war, making going along for the ride the safest, easiest option. Nick Note: this will help you understand. My job is to protect you and make you wealthy in the coming stock market wipe out. If these Wall Street guys try to do what i do they would be run out of town on a rail. Its buy buy buy market up buy market down buy. Wall Street is stock marketing selling machine. THEY SELL people buy and get wiped out in the periodic downturns designed to make your money their money.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – JPMorgan Chase & Co has begun trading on a new private stock trading venue, or “dark pool,” that lets its clients use the bank’s algorithms to buy or sell stocks at a benchmark price reached over a period of time. Trading in the new dark pool, known as JPBX, began the week of July 17, according to data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The move comes at a time of increased regulatory scrutiny of dark pools that has led to a number of trading venues being shuttered, and highlights JPMorgan’s efforts to expand its equities business.Brokers looking to get benchmark pricing for their orders can access the new dark pool through JPMorgan’s algorithms. For instance, a broker might have an order for 5,000 shares to buy while another broker has an order for 2,000 shares of the same stock and wants to get the volume-weighted average price. JPBX will lock up the 2,000 shares on both sides for say, two minutes, and then execute at the average price of the stock over the previous two minutes. The bank hopes to have the dark pool fully launched by the end of the month, said a person with knowledge of the matter who did not have permission to be quoted in the media. JPMorgan spokeswoman Jessica Francisco declined to comment. Nearly every major bank has a dark pool, a trading venue that does not have to provide information such as trade sizes or prices to the public prior to trades taking place, with the aim of getting large orders done with minimal price movement. Nick Note: this is simply scalping by computer. ALL dark pools should be illegal. Open hones and fair trading with full disclosure is how its suppose to be. That is why the wipeout will be so severe. the system is corrupt. and it is held together by a lick and a prayer
U.S. shale drillers will keep posting strong gains in August and September, with production from shale regions topping 6 million barrels a day, the Department of Energy projected. The department’s Energy Information Administration projected output in several key oil producing regions will grow by 117,000 barrels a day to 6.15 million barrels a day in September. The region’s output is seen topping 6 million barrels a day in August. The forecast for this month is significantly higher than a prior estimate, primarily because the EIA began projecting output for the Anadarko region, which covers parts of Oklahoma and Texas, in its August Drilling Productivity Report. Drillers have recently flocked to the Anadarko because the cost of producing oil there is relatively low. The latest Drilling Productivity Report from EIA marks the sixth straight month the agency has forecast production growth above 100,000 barrels a day. Many shale drillers maintained their guidance for 2017 production levels, but some are pulling back spending this year after oil prices softened in the second quarter. That could impact their output growth next year. Nick Note: the fracking revolution is upon us. and it has momentum. Fracking will bring more and more oil to market… for years into the future. Oil and gasoline will be cheaper then bottled water.
LONDON (AP) — Industrial output across the 19 countries that make up the eurozone fell in June, official figures showed Monday. The Eurostat statistics agency said output declined by 0.6 percent during the month. Though monthly figures can be volatile, the fall, the first since February, was in line with predictions in financial markets, with many economists warning about the implications of the euro’s rise in recent months, particularly against the currencies of the eurozone’s two biggest export markets, Britain and the U.S. Germany, the single currency bloc’s powerhouse economy where production fell by 1.1 percent. In the second quarter, the eurozone economy grew by a quarterly rate of 0.6 percent. Economists said the June industrial production figures are unlikely to prompt any revision to that rate in this Wednesday’s update. Nick Note: now lousy industrial production numbers join the dismal GDP number of a minuscule 0.6%. Its called a global slowdown. and it will end up in a global depression
The Stock Market is a disaster. Contrary to myth companies are not making money. On a trailing 12-month basis, aggregate EPS of the S&P 500 companies are down about 5% from their peak in Q4 2014. And over same three-plus years of total earnings stagnation, the S&P 500 index has soared 34%. This chart shows those “adjusted” earnings per share for the S&P 500 companies (black line) and the S&P 500 index (blue line). Chart via FactSet (cl I marked August 2012 as the point five years ago, and May 2014:
And these are not earnings under the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). FactSet uses “adjusted” earnings for its analyses. These are the earnings with the bad shit “adjusted” out of them by management to manipulate earnings into the most favorable light. Not all companies report “adjusted” earnings. Some only report GAAP earnings and live with the consequences. But most others put adjusted earnings into the foreground, and that’s what shit Wall Street dishes up. Greedy people are being suckered into the biggest wipe out ever.
Look at one of my favorite indicators. The price to earnings ratio chart below:
Nick Note: I regard a P/E ratio above 10 to high. Remember they are cooking the books big time on earnings. So reality is the ratio using GAPP earning is far far higher since the E part of the equation is a MUCH lower number. Except for extraordinary circumstances a general rule is buy at 5 and ALWAYS sell at 20. In fact i have never seen a market that achieves a P/E Ratio above 20 that did not CRASH.
People are blaming this week’s market sell-off on rising tensions with North Korea, but it has “nothing to do with North Korea,” Canaccord Genuity’s chief market strategist Tony Dwyer said. “This is all about a market looking for an excuse to sell off with a ‘natural, normal and healthy correction,’ which is only that way until you actually get it,” Dwyer told CNBC’s “Fast Money.” “And then, you run around with your hair on fire, unless you’re me.”
Corrections in the market are “normal and healthy,” Dwyer said. The size of the dip in a non-recession time period depends on whether people think there will be a recession, he said, and right now, nothing going on in the world suggests there will be one. Nick Note: Of course we are entering a recession and of course the markets have needed a excuse to sell off. Now they got a lot of excuses. They are throwing darts at the bubble and some of them are hitting their target
U.S. consumer prices remained soft for the fifth straight month in July, raising more questions about whether inflation will eventually rise to hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual rate target. The consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in July, the Labor Department said Friday. Food prices rose 0.2% in July while energy prices slipped 0.1%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also rose 0.1%“ The CPI data was very muted and not something which the Fed is going to be happy to look it,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK Ltd, in an email note. Consumer prices have risen an unadjusted 1.7% over the past 12 months, up slightly from 1.6% in June. But on a core basis, which is watched more closely by Fed officials, consumer prices remained at a 1.7% annual rate, the same rate as in May and June. The core rate was held down by a sharp decline in new vehicle prices, which fell 0.5%, the biggest decline since August 2009. In addition, the index for lodging away from home fell a sharp 4.2%, the biggest decline since the series began in December 1997. Real or inflation-adjusted hourly wages, meanwhile, climbed 0.2% in July to $10.80. Real wages have risen 0.7% over the past 12 months. Nick Note: As you are seeing inflation is dead. AND AND AND in Vehicle prices are collapsing just like they did in the last melt down in 2009 where GM went broke. AND AND AND AND the Hotel business is seeing a epic wpieout. Trump is sure lucky he is getting all that government business
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The U.S. economic expansion will last at least another two years, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters who also forecast growth will not accelerate the way the Trump administration has predicted. The recovery from the devastating 2007-2009 financial crisis has been unusually lengthy. The latest growth stretch has already lasted 96 months, and if the poll predictions come true
it would mark the longest economic expansion in more than 150 years.
Still, the U.S. expansion has more than two years to go, according to 34 of 57 economists who answered an additional question on the business cycle. Of those economists, 21 said it would last two to three years and 13 said more than three years. “Expansions don’t go on forever,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo, who said there was another two to three years to go. “Steady, moderate growth looks like it could stay in place for a while.”The remaining 23 respondents said the expansion would only last one to two years. None of the economists, based in the United States, Canada and Europe, expected it to end within a year. Nick Note: How do i know we are at a market peek and economic peek. Because the assholes from academia are telling me the expansion has room to go. Funny as the stock market wipes out they always tell you its a buying opportunity. i tell you what it really is. A suicide pack for mindless bulls. The longest expansion in 150 years. Just that fact alone makes me want to sell the shit out of this INSANITY!!!! AND OU SHOULD TOO
WASHINGTON (AP) — Prices at the wholesale level slipped in July, the first decline in 11 months and further evidence that inflation remains a no-show in the economy. The Labor Department said Thursday that its producer price index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, edged down 0.1 percent last month, reflecting a third month of declines in energy prices and a flat reading for food. The July result followed a tiny 0.1 percent gain in June. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also fell last month by 0.1 percent. Inflation has been low throughout this recovery. For the past five years, it has fallen below the Federal Reserve’s target for annual price gains of 2 percent a year. inflation by a gauge preferred by the Fed in June registered a 12-month gain of just 1.4 percent. Nick Note: its pretty obvious deflation is the order of the day. I wonder how long it will take those doctoral laureates and Noble Plastic explosive peace prize recipients in economics to scratch their collective asses and figure it out.
The “biggest forecasting mistake of 2017” — U.S. inflation — has become apparent as gauges of inflation have delivered “an almost unprecedented string of downside surprises since April,” according to a recent JPMorgan report. “So far this year, US core inflation has printed weaker than expected for four consecutive months, Specifically, Normand pointed to inflation measures such as headline consumer price index (CPI) readings, core consumer price index data (CPI without taking into account energy and food prices), personal income and average hourly wage growth. He noted that U.S. inflation, particularly average hourly wage growth, often surprise to the downside, “but rarely for more than four consecutive months.” Nick Note: as you know i have been on the record predicting this deflation turning into the biggest depression of our life time. They can not see what they refuse to believe is possible. Won’t they be surprised and broke to!.
In fact, the recent downside surprises in core CPI data have been the largest since the global financial crisis, he wrote.
This comes after many calls for rising inflation due to a pickup in economic activity.
Normand wrote that, indeed, bonds were rallying and the U.S. dollar was selling off — at least before this spring’s “inflection” point in CPI and average hourly earnings.
Economists getting inflation wrong is not merely an issue in the U.S., said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange management at BK Asset Management. The reason could simply be that traditional measures of inflation have not evolved to keep pace with the changing economic landscape, he said.
Jack Lew, former US treasury secretary, has told the BBC the world remains at risk from financial threats. He says loosening regulation would not be a good idea: “We should not disarm at a moment when we’re out of the last financial crisis, but still in a world with substantial financial risks. But Mr Lew, an adviser to Barack Obama during the financial crisis in 2008, says no to tighter rules. “I don’t personally believe we should do more than we need to.” Looking back on the unfolding financial crisis, he told the BBC’s Today Programme the bad news had kept on escalating. “I have never seen a situation where every single day the numbers were so much worse than the day before that you literally had to keep revisiting how much fiscal stimulus the economy would need in order to stimulate a recovery,” he said. He said action taken then, both in supporting the financial system and tightening up regulation, had borne fruit: “What our reforms of Wall Street after the crisis did was, for the first time since Great Depression, give us the tools to safeguard the evolving financial system.” The Dodd-Frank Act was the key piece of law-making designed to ensure there would never be another 2008-style meltdown. Its aim is to keep a closer eye on the institutions that are “too big to fail” and to limit the risks they take. President Donald Trump thinks regulation of the financial sector is now too onerous. One part of the Dodd-Frank act is the Volcker Rule, which is designed to prevent banks from using their own money to trade. Last week, that was officially opened up for review, after Trump appointee Keith Noreika announced he wanted views on how to define better which activities are prohibited by this rule. Mr Lew gave a warning on making significant changes to the rules: “There’s been a big push back saying this has gone too far. “I fear that as the memory fades, some of the simple nostrums about clearing away regulation start to take on salience, as if the stakes weren’t high enough in 2007-08.” Nick Note: the rolling back of the regulations initiated after the 2009 wipe out is crazy shit. its shows you the power of the banking lobby and Trumps stupidity. Mankind will pay a horrible price for this. Trump has rolled back regulations, forced the Federal Reserve to eliminate any real stress tests. AND allowed banks to lower they capital paying it out as bonuses to banker insiders. This will soon end in the biggest banking collasp ever.
The potential for Congress to not raise the government’s debt ceiling when it returns in September from its recess may begin to weigh on equity and currency markets. The stock market rally has partially been hinged on hopes that the Trump administration will enact some sort of tax reform in the second half of the year. But mounting political tension may finally start impacting Wall Street heading into the fall, said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange strategy at BK Asset Management. “Rumblings out of D.C. that the GOP will not pass a clean debt ceiling bill are already starting to weigh on the dollar, and investor concern may soon start to spill over into equities,” Schlossberg wrote Tuesday in an email to CNBC. The decision could have significant implications on the markets because the Republican Party seems to be “backing off the idea” of a “clean” debt ceiling. A “clean” debt ceiling refers to a lifting or suspension of the agreed-upon cap on federal borrowing capacity without any additional provisions. The likelihood of this passing is unlikely, Republican Rep. Tom Cole said Tuesday on MSNBC. “If they attach any sort of conditions, that could create a stalemate in Washington, D.C., and actually put the U.S. Treasury at risk of default, so it could be a very serious concern for the markets as we get into the fall season,” Schlossberg said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “Regardless of how the events unfold, the collision of the budget and debt ceiling deadlines in September and October could spark market volatility and also a flight to quality, especially, ironically, Treasury securities,” the strategists, led by fixed income strategist Martin Mauro, wrote. Nick Note: we have a whole lot of bullets that will shoot down this stock market. Failure has been a way of life for Donal Trump. He has lost for himself and investors over 10 billion dollars. Pretty good when you consider he was not even a investment bank. The only wins were the beauty pageants and Apprentice reality TV show. It is amazing to me that a man who is basically broke… bailed out by Russian criminals is regarded as a hot shit businessman. No wonder he refuses to this day to release his income tax returns, financials or put his holdings into a blind trust. The administrator would have no choice but to go to the police. How easy they are fooled if you promise them a job!
According to new data released by the Federal Reserve, U.S. credit card debt has reached a record high of $1.021 trillion . Revolving debt, the type that includes credit card purchases, rose by $4.1 billion in June alone. It’s down a bit: in May it rose a whopping $6.9 billion. Still, for individual consumers who are fighting to pay off their balances, it’s still a bad sign. “America’s credit card balances have never been higher, says Matt Schulz, CreditCards.com’s senior industry analyst.Schulz says this new record should serve as wake-up call to Americans: Start tackling your debt now before it grows any more. Nick Note: a whole new group of debt slaves are about to be wiped out. They will lose everything…. Most will never recover
DoubleLine CEO Jeffery Gundlach expects his bet for a decline in the S&P 500 will return 400 percent. “I’ll be disappointed if we don’t make 400 percent on the puts, and we don’t even need a big market decline for that to happen,” Gundlach said on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” He said that in his firm’s analysis, volatility is so low that they can make a big return by buying put options — bets for a decline — on the S&P 500 for December. “It’s not really a bear call on the S&P 500. It’s more of a bull call on volatility,” he said. In its slow grind higher, the S&P 500 has only closed more than 1 percent higher or lower on four trading days this year. As a result of the muted market performance, the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, has persistently held near historical lows around 10 or below this year and hit an all-time low of 8.84 on July 26. The VIX was near 10.1 midday “I think going long the VIX is really sort of free money at a 9.80 VIX level today,” Gundlach said. “I believe the market will drop 3 percent at a minimum sometime between now and December. And when it does I don’t think the VIX will be at 10.” Gundlach reiterated his expectations for a snap higher in the VIX once volatility picks up, since hedge funds have piled heavily into bets that volatility will remain low. Nick Note: As you know we have a trade for that
Reducing immigration to the United States, as President Donald Trump has proposed, will reduce economic growth, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday. “Do we want economic growth, or not? That’s what it comes down to,” Kashkari said at the Rotary Club of Downtown Sioux Falls, South Dakota, responding to a question from a Rotary Club member. Sioux Falls, he said, has embraced immigration, and other towns would do well to do the same. Nick Note: Trump has got it wrong again. Most all of us are decedents of immigrants that had little or no education, no money who could not speak the language when then immigrated to the US . SO! they figured it out. The US native population is ageing rapidly, we need worker bees if the economy to grow out of the coming depression. This immigration policy as proposed is lunacy. Another little fact they forget to tell. New immigrants on welfare don’t stay on the dole. And they pay back far far more then they receive in initial aid in taxes. People don’t immigrate to America for welfare. They come for jobs and a piece of the American dream. Trump should now about immigrants. The golden palaces were built by illegal immigrants.
St. Louis Fed president sees no threat of inflation from low jobless rate
The level of short-term interest rates is fine where it is for now, said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Monday. “The current level of the policy rate is likely to remain appropriate over the near term,” Bullard said in a speech to America’s Cotton Marketing Cooperatives 2017 conference in Nashville. In contrast to some other Fed officials speaking recently, Bullard said he doesn’t believe that the unemployment rate, which is running at a 16-year low at 4.3%, will be enough to push inflation toward the central bank’s 2% target. Even a further steep decline in the jobless rate wouldn’t boost prices, he argued.
Bullard said a key driver of U.S. inflation appears to be global commodity prices, especially crude oil prices. He said the “financialization” of global commodity markets in recent years may have made many commodities more highly correlated with oil prices than they otherwise would have been, he noted. Bullard said the question of whether financial stability should be a goal of monetary policy remains “a hot topic.” Nick Note: As we have been telling you we are entering a deflation. The FED will not be raising interest rates. in fact they will be lowering them. What we been telling you about entering a deflation is happening. by this time next year we will be in a recession.
SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK (Reuters) – President Donald Trump arrived in office having promised a bold $1 trillion infrastructure investment plan over 10 years for roads, bridges, airports and transit systems crumbling by the day across the United States. But nearly seven months later the administration has produced few details on the future of federal infrastructure funding, one reason why state and municipal governments have issued fewer bonds to improve roads, water systems and other projects so far in 2017. An early budget by Republican Trump even proposed stripping popular transportation funding programs. Through July, new municipal deals to fund transportation, utilities and power projects totaled $50.7 billion, down 19.4 percent from the same period last year, according to an analysis of Thomson Reuters data. Nick Note: their will be no infrastructure plan of any sustenance. its more Trump blow and go. In a recession the infrastructure suffers. As the economy slows spending deceases. As you are seeing. its a easy budget item to cut. A new bridge of Medicaid?
Warning: A correction in the market is “inevitable” and there are three key factors that could spark chaos on Wall Street, according to James Advantage Fund president Barry James.
The investor likened the market to Yellowstone National Park’s famous supervolcano, which many believe is close to eruption. Stocks continued to hit record highs on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting its 8th consecutive all-time high. Aside from the rise of passive investing, which James says is creating a “herd mentality” among investors, he also believed that the earnings picture isn’t telling the whole story. “In the 18 months ending in June, we saw companies that had no earnings, they were losing money, outperform those that were making money,” said James. He highlighted many stocks’ performances this year may not be reflective of their revenues. But the biggest threat to the market rally, according to James, is the current valuation levels of stocks. “We went back to 1994 and researched team data that said [that if we look at cyclically adjusted P/E, one out of two times] the market was down in the next 12 months, and about one out of three times it was down more than 10 percent,” he said. James’ observations seem to mirror a note released more than a week ago by Goldman Sachs, which found that when valuations have been this high, 10-year returns on the S&P 500 have been either in the single digits or negative 99 percent of the time. In other words, the market could be in oversold territory, which James does believe. “It doesn’t mean that we’ll see a volcanic eruption in the immediate future, and these market peaks take a long time, but we’re definitely in the latter stages of this market advance,” he said. “We’re going to see the inevitable correction, I just wish I could say I knew when.” Nick Note: Even the stupid money is starting to figure out something is wrong. of couse no one knows when. its a little late to go short after the market crashes. You sell and wait them out and grit your teeth. The biggest stock market crash is on the near horizon.
Major U.S. stock-market indexes are trading near record levels. Market breadth, a measure of how many stocks are rising versus the number that are dropping, has turned “exceedingly negative,” according to Brad Lamensdorf, a portfolio manager at Ranger Alternative Management “As the indexes continue to produce a series of higher highs, subsurface conditions are painting an entirely different picture,”He noted that the year-to-date advance in equities — the S&P 500 SPX, +0.19% is up 10.6% in 2017 — has been driven by outsize gains in some of the market’s biggest names. “The good performance of these large companies is masking the fact that many stocks, including REITs and those in the retail sector, have already entered bear-market territory,” Lamensdorf wrote, referring to real estate investment trusts. 79 components of the S&P 500 are trading at least 20% below their 52-week high; a bear market is typically defined as a 20% drop from a peak. Separately, a read on market supply and demand from Ned Davis Research has shown weakening demand for stocks, despite major indexes continuing to grind higher, while the supply metric has started to rise. Rising supply and lower demand could indicate waning enthusiasm for equities at current levels. Nick Note: we are very very close to a peek in this bubble market. Prepare yourself to cash in what will be the biggest stock market crash ever. The Trump Dump!
I hate the first Friday of every month. that is when I get the most politicized report of them all. And i pull out my hair as i see what a shit report it really is. Talk about the lone voice in the wilderness. So let me give you the rundown they forget to tell you. Look at the above chart as you can see new jobs created are nothing to brag about. At about the lower side of the range for the last ten years. But what you got to know is all the new Job creation were part time, which gained 393,000 positions, while full time jobs actually FELL by 54,000.
July’s part time job gains were in shitty low paying jobs. Restaurants and bars added 53,000 employees. Health care gained 39,000 new positions. Manufacturing firms hired 16,000 workers.
And wage growth sucks. Wages grew only 2.5% in July compared with a year earlier. The Federal Reserve would like to see wage growth kick up to 3.5%. In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents to $26.36. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 65 cents, or 2.5 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $22.10. And the hours worked have plunged. Which means people are working less hours and making less money.
And we still have a lot of people not working out of the work force. The labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent, changed little in July and has shown little movement on net over the past year. The employment-population ratio (60.2 percent)
was also little changed in July but is up by a minuscule 0.4 percentage point over the year.
And it gets uglier. We don’t have people working a 40 hour week any more. The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.5 hours in July. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 33.7 hours for the fourth consecutive month.
NOW FOR THE REAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: Its stuck at 8.6 going no where!
U-6 is Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. I published the numbers below for the last 6 months. What freeging improvement?
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
9.2 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.6
As you can see their has been no real improvement for the past 4 months. This number reveals that part time low paying jobs are not not not working for the masses. In fact hours worked are dropping. Full time work is falling. and the number of people working age that are out of the work force is still at record highs. But don’t let the facts get in the way of deep state spin. They all do it!
LONDON (Reuters) – Negative interest rates imposed by central banks have generally worked as a tool to boost inflation, pulling down yields and sometimes weakening currencies, International Monetary Fund research has concluded. It also found that commercial banks for the most part have maintained their profits under such policy, cushioning margins with such tactics as not passing on all of a policy rate cut to customers. The findings come in a report by IMF economists Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Vikram Haksar and Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli who studied the impact of sub-zero interest rate policy in the euro zone, Denmark, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland. Cutting rates below zero has been a factor in some central banks’ struggle to help their economies recover from the financial crisis and its accompanying trend towards deflation.The European Central Bank, for example, currently has an overnight deposit rate of minus 0.4 percent. This means it effectively charges banks for holding deposits, an attempt to get them to lend it instead, pumping up the economy. Nick Note: 10 trillion dollars in global government debt yields negative. And its is just the start. Central banks are very very interested in negative rates…. its a deflation and negative rates are there only policy tool left.
The governor of the Bank of England has warned that uncertainty over Brexit is already weighing on the economy. Mark Carney’s comments came as the Bank voted to hold rates and cut growth forecasts. It edged this year’s growth forecast down to 1.7% from its previous forecast of 1.9% made in May. It also cut its forecast for 2018 from 1.7% to 1.6%. Sterling dropped to a nine-month low against the euro after the downward revision to the growth forecasts. The pound fell about 0.76% to 1.1063 euros. The bank voted 6-2 to keep interest rates on hold at 0.25%. They have been at that level since August last year. Mr Carney said that business investment was slower than it would have been expected to be because of Brexit. Mr Carney said the Bank expected business investment to pick up from its current “very subdued” levels, but that it was still below historic rates. He added that Brexit uncertainty was also hitting pay negotiations. Nick Note: This is the vry early stages of the Brexit. The real fun is yet to come. it will devastate both the British and the EU economy
A reading of service-sector activity slowed in July to the weakest rate of growth in 11 months, according to data released Thursday. The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index fell to 53.9% in July from 57.4% in June. Gauges for production, new orders, employment, deliveries, inventories, order backlogs and new-export orders all decelerated. “A typical and expected midsummer slowdown in hiring activity by employers is causing a normal slowdown in business for this time of year. “Business volume slowed some in June,” said a purchasing manager in the health-care and social assistance field. ISM indicated that the past relationship between the services index and the economy corresponds to a 1.9% annual rate of GDP growth. Nick Note: See that part about a 1.9% GDP growth rate. Not 3.5%, not 3%. Not even 2.5%. bot even 2%… this is a disaster of epic proportions.
Apple owns $20.1 billion in short-term Treasury securities and $31.35 billion long-term marketable Treasury securities, according to its most recent regulatory filing.
That puts it ahead of all but 22 foreign countries, according to Treasury records.
Apple owns $52.6 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, which would rank it among the top 25 major foreign holders, according to estimates from the Treasury Department and Apple’s SEC filings released on Wednesday. Apple’s stake in U.S. government securities as of June, up from $41.7 billion as of last September, puts it ahead of Israel, Mexico and the Netherlands, according to Treasury data released last month, which tracks up to May of this year. Nick Note: Apple has INCREASED ts huge stash of US government securities. With one of the largest cash hoards in the corporate world their money mangers understand cash. And for Apple holding US government Treasuries in cash is the equivalent of cash in the mattress
“The real economy has little to gain, and much to lose.”
When tighter regulations were imposed on the banks after the Financial Crisis, the largest among them, the very ones that threatened to bring down the financial system, began squealing. Those voices are now being heard by Congress, which is considering deregulating the banks again. In particular, they claim that current capital requirements force banks to curtail their lending to businesses and consumers, and thus hurt the economy. Nonsense! That’s in essence what FDIC Vice Chairman Thomas Hoenig told Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo and the committee’s senior Democrat, Sherrod Brown, in a letter dated Tuesday, according to Reuters. The senators are trying to find a compromise on bank deregulation. If banks wanted to increase lending, they could easily do so without lower capital requirements, Hoenig pointed out. Rather than blowing their income on share-buybacks or paying it out in form of dividends, banks could retain more of their income, thus adding it to regulatory capital. Capital absorbs the losses from bad loans. Higher capital levels make a bank more resilient during the next crisis. If there isn’t enough capital, the bank collapses and gets bailed out. But banks that increase their capital levels through retained earnings are stronger and can lend more.
In the first quarter, the 10 largest bank holding companies in the US plowed over 100% of their earnings into share buybacks and dividends, he wrote. If they had retained more of their income, they could have boosted lending by $1 trillion.
The CEO of the top bank on this list has been very vocal about plowing more of the bank’s income into share buybacks and dividends, while pushing regulators to lower capital requirements. Nick Note: Further proof how full of shit these soon to go broke banks are. They are cashing out as they get ready to cash America into their coming wipe out.
Low savings rate shows Americans spending beyond their means. Apotential trouble spot for the U.S. economy: Americans might be spending beyond their means, dipping into savings to pay for their latest purchases. Newly revised government figures show Americans continue to boost spending about 2.5% a year even though growth in after-tax income has slowed to around 1%. Figures are adjusted for inflation. Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said it appears Americans have been able to keep on spending by reducing their savings. During most of the recovery, the U.S. savings rate ranged from 4% to 6%. Yet the U.S. savings rate began to slide at the start of 2016, and it fell to a nearly 10-year low of 3.2% earlier this year.
In June, the savings rate equaled 3.8%. The low savings rate and big gap in income and spending come as quite a surprise. Before the government revisions, income growth was supposedly growing at a 2% to 2.5% annual pace. And the savings rate was listed above 5%. Everything seemed all right. Nick Note: This s why this coming recession will quickly turn into a big ugly depression. People have no money. They have no savings and they are deeply in debt. This will be ugly
Total mortgage application volume fell 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Volume was 22 percent lower compared with the same week one year ago, due to much lower volume in refinances. Mortgage applications to refinance a home loan fell 4 percent for the week, seasonally adjusted, and were 41 percent lower than the same week one year ago, when interest rates were lower. Refinance volume is particularly sensitive to weekly rate moves, but rates have been so low for so long that there is a shrinking pool of borrowers who might benefit from a refinance. Rates are currently hovering around the lowest level in five weeks. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($424,100 or less) remained unchanged at 4.17 percent, with points decreasing to 0.36 from 0.40 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. Nick Note: if people ain’t buying houses they don’t need to apply for mortgages. And you and i know that both existing and new home sales are plunging
Sales for major U.S. auto makers sharply declined in July amid a modest slump in lease deals that have kept payments low, continuing an industry slowdown that has led to a glut of inventory on dealer lots and a spate of discounts. General Motors Co. reported a 15.4% sales decline in July compared to the same period a year ago, selling 226,107 cars and trucks. Ford Motor Co.’s said sales slid 7.4% last month to 199,318 vehicles. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V.’s posted a 10% decline in July, selling 161,477 vehicles, as its top-selling Jeep brand continued to struggle against rivals with newer sport-utility models. Car makers also facing a new problem: lenders are backing away from offering the cut-rate lease deals that kept monthly payments low and sheet metal flying off dealer lots in recent years. Swelling used-vehicle supply is accelerating the pullback on leasing, The increased supply comes after used-car values had grown steadily in the years following the 2009 financial crisis. Nick Note: SHIT anther warning sign car sales crashing is not a sign the economy is doing well. it is a dire warning that we are entering a recession and a BIG stock market CRASH. Get your ducks in a row!
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. construction spending declined in June for the second time in three months, as spending on government construction projects plunged by the largest amount in 15 years. Construction spending fell 1.3 percent in June, the biggest drop since a 1.8 decline in April, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Spending rose a tiny 0.3 percent in May. The decline raises concerns that construction may not provide as much support for the overall economy as had been expected in the second half of the year. Home construction declined 0.2 percent, the third consecutive decrease in that category. Government spending fell 5.4 percent, the biggest drop since a 6 percent decline in March 2002. The 0.1 percent rise in non-residential construction follows a 0.6 percent increase in May, with both gains following several months of declines. The gain in June was helped by a strong 2.9 percent increase in spending on office construction, which offset a 0.4 percent decline in the category that includes shopping centers. Overall spending was reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.21 trillion, compared with last month’s revised figure of $1.22 trillion. Nick Note: The real estate whores want you to believe the market is so hot they are running out of houses to sell. And that is why sales are plunging. WHAT BULLSHIT! The construction numbers prove the market is slowing. if their was Real hot demand construction spending would soar to supply the ha ha ha hot market. Reality is sales are slowing, demand is slowing and ding ding ding construction spending is slowing as well. These are are great indicators of the pain and misery to come in real estate.
The economy in the Chicago region grew in July but cooled a bit from earlier in the summer, indicating that businesses are still confident despite political drama in Washington. The Chicago business barometer, or Chicago PMI, slipped to 58.9 in July from a three-year high of 65.7 in June, MNI Indicators said Monday. The decline broke a string of five straight increases. The index spiked after President Donald Trump took office in January promising to boost economic growth with a series of pro-business policies. Businesses remain confident in the economy even as much of the president’s agenda, including tax cuts, deregulation and a boost to infrastructure spending, has stalled. A majority of firms still aren’t increasing wages as much as they normally would when the unemployment rate is near a 16-year low at 4.4%. The continuing restraints on pay suggest that inflation is unlikely to experience a surge soon, allowing interest rates to remain fairly low for the foreseeable future. Nick Note: the Trump sugar high is dissipating rapidly.
Interest rates aren’t just low because the Federal Reserve is keeping them there but rather because of a weak economy and other factors, the central bank’s vice chairman said Monday. In a speech delivered in Rio de Janeiro, Stanley Fischer said low rates send “a powerful signal that the growth potential of the economy may be limited.” At a time when President Donald Trump is discussing raising the pace of the U.S. economy to at least 3 percent growth, Fischer cited Congressional Budget Office estimates that potential is probably closer to 1.5 percent. Nick Note: Shit! its really good news Trump does not do much reading. If he heard Ole Stanley admitting that the economy will not grow anywhere near the Trump declared 3.5% growth. We all know what would happen. YOUR FIRED.
Oil prices hit a two-month high on Monday, lifted by a tightening U.S. crude market and the threat of sanctions against OPEC-member Venezuela. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $49.87 per barrel, and the entire Prices have risen around 10 percent since the last meeting of leading members by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers, including Russia, when the group discussed potential measures to further tighten oil markets. “U.S. inventories are showing massive drawdowns, Saudi Arabia seems intent on playing its role as the world’s swing producer (and) impending sanctions on Venezuela by the U.S. will almost certainly be oil price-supportive. Nick Note: sounds like a selling opportunity to me coming real soon
Japan’s industrial output rose 1.6 percent in June from the previous month due to higher production of cars and chemicals, preliminary government data showed on Monday. It followed a 3.6 percent decline in May, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed. Still down 2% for the last 2 months. Disaster. Nick Note: further proof global demand and the global economy is heading south. I can’t wait for our fun to begin. Health care reform…… tax cuts…. infrastructure projects for a trillion dollars….. the wall… renegotiating trade deals with China and i almost forgot repealing the worst negotiated deal ever with Iran. no wonder North Korea is NOT scared!!! Show me the BEEF!
HONG KONG (AP) — Chinese factory activity eased in July as export demand weakened while momentum in service industries also waned, according to official surveys out Monday, indicating that the world’s No. 2 economy is struggling for traction. The survey found that new export orders dropped by a wider margin than overall new orders. Nick Note: Just as we figured. US retail sales dropping. Inventories climbing as sales back up AND exports from China dropping. Remember the last thing they want you to know is we are entering another bigger then ever recession. Never mind depression.
CARACAS, July 29 (Reuters) – Venezuelan protesters blocked streets on Saturday in a last-ditch effort to derail the election of a legislative super-body that opponents of President Nicolas Maduro say will give the socialist leader a stranglehold on power. The oil-rich but recession-racked country has been gripped by four months of protests against Maduro that have left more than 110 dead in confrontations against security forces who have responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons. “Extend the barricades until tomorrow and everybody go to the streets on Sunday to demand the transformation of Venezuela,” Freddy Guevara, an opposition congressman, said on Twitter. Caraqueños, as residents of capital city Caracas are known, woke to the sight of debris-strewn streets where demonstrators clashed with security forces during the week. Those who are against Maduro’s brand of socialism said they would not vote in Sunday’s election aimed at selecting the “constituent assembly.” Nick Note: This is one of the stories that most people do not realize is a big deal for America. The ties between the two countries is by oil. Having purchased refined products from Venezuela in large quantities for years. I can tell you its a complicated place. I met Chavez and i can tell you he was a powerful commie populist near dictator. The heir to his thrown Maduro is a dangerous man. These elections are a big deal. My belief is the regime will remain in control. IF IF IF their is a revolution it opens up a Latin American crises the like of which we have never seen before. Washington is sleeping. Russia, Cuba and China are drooling. We could see market moving events i am on it!
U.S. gross domestic product increased 2.6 percent in the second quarter, meeting expectations.
Last quarter’s growth rate came in at 1.4 percent. In 2016 the economy notched its weakest performance since the recession, according to revised government data published on Friday. The economy grew 1.9 percent in the first half of 2017, making it unlikely that GDP would top 2.5 percent for the full year. President Donald Trump has set an ambitious 3.0 percent growth target for 2017. . Nick Note: Second Quarter growth is usually the strongest. Extrapolating forward and taking into account 1st Half growth of only 1.9% the US economy will grow this year at best at 1.5%. To get the trump “miracle” going growth needs to be at 3.5% to 4%. Without ANY of the Trump”s promises coming to fruition its a safe bet that in 2018 we will slip into a recession.
The U.S. Senate passed legislation on Thursday that imposes additional sanctions on Russia and the bill is going to President Donald Trump for his approval. The House of Representatives passed the legislation on Tuesday 419-3, and the Senate passed it on Thursday with a vote of 98-2, CNN reports. In the bill, new sanctions are imposed on North Korea and Iran. The White House did not say if Trump would sign the legislation into law or if he would veto it. However, with the overwhelming majorities of members of Congress in favor, the legislation is essentially veto-proof. The two senators to vote against the bill were Sens. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) and Rand Paul (R., Ky.). Nick Note: Vladimir is really really pissed. He thought when he bought and paid for Trump and his family he was in a drop dead deal to get sanctions lifted. Not I repeat Not ending up with More Sanctions. I am so glad the president has great security. Now you know why i love our Russian trade. PS They will easily override Trumps veto
Inventories of retail and wholesale products jumped in June. The Commerce Department reported that the advanced report for wholesale inventories as well as that for retail inventories both jumped a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in June. For wholesale inventories, both durable and nondurable goods saw 0.6% advances. On the retail sales, motor vehicle and parts dealers inventories gained 0.7% while retail ex-autos grew 0.6%. Rising inventories can send mixed messages — one of confidence, in that companies are getting products to eventually sell, but also one of tepid demand.Inventories do help GDP in the quarter in which they are built. The Commerce Department also reported the advanced trade in goods dropped 3.7% in June, to $63.9 billion. That’s the smallest deficit since December. Nick Note: this is a freeging disaster and show that the economy is sucking shut. Sales are plunging as the economy slows. Unsold inventories are backing up. And importers are cutting back order. the numbers in this case do not lie
The U.K. economy grew by 0.3 percent in the three months to June compared to the previous quarter. The Office for National Statistics noted a “notable slowdown” in the first half of 2017. The government agency said construction and manufacturing dragged down the country’s economic performance, after registering two consecutive quarters of growth. Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the data confirm that the country’s economy was indeed slowing. “The preliminary estimate of GDP (gross domestic product) confirms that the economy has little momentum because consumers are enduring falling real wages and businesses are holding back from spending due to Brexit risk,” he said in a statement. Nick Note: Slowly the global economy is grinding down. Then the crash! it is certainly flashing its warning… If you have eyes to see!
New research from JPMorgan examining historic data found that the risk of a dramatic decline in prices is low, despite current fears of a correction in the U.S. and Canada. Using data from 14 developed countries dating back to 1950, JPMorgan’s research found that sharp price corrections have been relatively uncommon, even following large price increases. “The data show that sustained increases in real house prices have been the norm rather than the exception in the post-World War II era, as rising populations and incomes have pushed up land prices,” Jesse Edgerton, U.S. analyst from the investment bank’s economic and policy research team, said in the report entitled “Quantifying housing correction risk in Canada and the U.S.,” published late Tuesday. “Of course, there have been occasional large price declines over multi-year periods, as we saw starting in 2006 in the U.S. But such declines have not been common, even after periods of rising prices,” he said, adding that the chance of a decline in prices was low. Nick Note: Now i know for sure their will be a housing wipeout. By the way they said in 2006 that sub prime mortgages were not a problem and you saw what happened.
The Greek government is preparing to return to the bond market but there are many structural problems that have yet to be resolved to make the economy more sustainable, an analyst told CNBC. Greece is currently on a third financial program since 2010, due to expire next year. According to James Athey, fixed income investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, despite the reforms implemented until now, “it still doesn’t seem we are particularly far down the road in solving the structural issues of Greece.” The International Monetary Fund agreed Thursday to make a loan of $1.8 billion to Greece as part of its current bailout program, but warned that the country will have to continue reforming in order to receive that money. Nick Note: what the IMF and the global banks have done to Greece they will soon do to the US
Respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey have marked down their expectations for Federal Reserve rate increases and for fiscal policy stimulus from Congress and the Trump administration. And there’s growing worry that the stock market could be set up for a fall. “Asset markets are very highly priced and investors are complacent,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “The pre-conditions for a significant correction in markets are coming into place.” Obamacare have fallen flat and tax reform is at risk.” That follows recent comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that “the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance.” Respondents also are dialing back what they expect from the Trump administration and Congress. More than half of respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey now disapprove of the job Trump is doing, and just 43 percent now approve of his handling of the economy, down 7 points from the June survey.
Half of the group believe the stock market is “too optimistic” about the chances for policy from the administration and Congress. Year over year, gross domestic product is seen rising to 2.25 percent this year and 2.45 percent next year. Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG is concerned: “The economy is in the eighth inning. Labor is becoming tighter, which should spur more investment into labor saving technology. Nevertheless, I expect we tip into a mild business cycle recession sometime in late-2018 or mid-2019.” Nick Note: we are hearing the R word more and more as in recession. Dragging and screaming they will be thrusted into the biggest economic downturn in the past 200 years.
There has been talk that President Trump’s top economic advisor, Gary Cohn, is a contender to talk the helm of the Federal Reserve when current Chairman Janet Yellen’s term is up next year. Now Trump has confirmed that. “He doesn’t know this, but yes he is,” President Trump told The Wall Street Journal in an interview, when asked if Cohn was a candidate for the job. Cohn is director of the National Economic Council, a job he took after nearly three decades working at Goldman Sachs. Nick Note: Don’t kid yourself. Goldman is lobbying hard for Cohen to get the top spot at te fed. Why? Because in the next recession/depression Goldman wlll need another bailout.
LONDON (AP) — Economic activity across the 19-country eurozone cooled slightly in July as the region struggled to keep up the fast pace of its recent upturn, according to a survey that is closely monitored by the European Central Bank. Financial information firm IHS Markit said Monday that its headline purchasing managers’ index for the region fell to a six-month low of 55.8 points in July from 56.3 the previous month. Official second-quarter figures are due at the start of August and are expected to show that the eurozone at least matched the 0.6 percent growth recorded in the first three months of the year. Last week, ECB President Mario Draghi sought to be neutral on interest rates, worried that any indication of any change of course could lead to the euro currency surging. More clarity is expected in the autumn. Nick Note: As you can see the global slow down is spreading. it will soon pick up steam.
The US economy’s next two years look rather shaky to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF on Sunday lowered its economic growth forecasts for the United States to 2.1% for this year and the next, down from the 2.3% for 2017 and 2.5% for 2018 that it had predicted in April. That’s a far cry from the 4% growth President Trump promised on the campaign trail, and significantly lower than the 3% growth he has targeted since assuming office. The global financial institution cited the “uncertainty” over the Trump administration’s policies as the main reason for the downgrade. The IMF also listed the US economy’s sluggish start to 2017 — with a first-quarter growth of just 1.4% — as another factor in its slashing of current forecasts. h start to 2017 — with a first-quarter growth of just 1.4% — as another factor in its slashing of current forecasts. Nick Note: And another one. Time is rapidly running out for Trump. Its time to get a rabbit out of his hat. I want you to understand to make America great again, pay for health care, give massive tax breaks and huge infrastructure projects he needs 3% to 4% growth rates. He will be lucky to average 2.5% this year and 1.5% next year.
A recession is brewing with consumers under pressure from rising prices and falling wages, a leading forecaster has warned. Respected consultancy Fathom Macro-economics said it is now more likely than not that there will be a recession – defined as a fall in economic output for two successive quarters. Economic growth has been weakening because the collapse in the pound has been stoking inflation, which experts believe is still on an upward trend despite a slight fall last month. Real wages – earnings once inflation is taken into account – are now falling. A recession is brewing with consumers under pressure from rising prices and falling wages, a leading forecaster has warned. Respected consultancy Fathom Macro-economics said it is now more likely than not that there will be a recession. Economic growth has been weakening because the collapse in the pound has been stoking inflation, which experts believe is still on an upward trend despite a slight fall last month. Real wages – earnings once inflation is taken into account – are now falling. Nick Note: Ditto this applies to America in spades. The masses are tapped out, DEEP in debt and making less and less every day. Did i mention they have NO savings. Which means you who have No debt, cash in your matters will be king!
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) have agreed to pay a combined $148 million to end private U.S. antitrust litigation claiming they conspired with other banks to manipulate the yen Libor and Euroyen Tibor benchmark interest rates. The preliminary settlements, totaling $77 million for Deutsche Bank and $71 million for JPMorgan, were detailed in filings late Friday in the U.S. District Court in Manhattan, and require a judge’s approval. They followed similar settlements last year with Citigroup Inc (C.N) and HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.L) totaling $23 million and $35 million, respectively. Investors including the California State Teachers’ Retirement System and J. Kyle Bass’ hedge fund Hayman Capital Management LP had accused more than 20 banks of conspiring to rig yen Libor, Euroyen Tibor and Euroyen Tibor futures contracts to benefit their own positions from 2006 through at least 2010. Investors have filed many lawsuits in the Manhattan court accusing banks of conspiring to rig rates or prices in various financial and commodities markets. Nick Note: What whores. These bastards are evil and corrupt beyond imagination. BUT BUT BUT the good news is their evil manipulations always blows up in their sleazy faces. Worth millions to each of us. And hell for the masses
Manufacturers reported solid, but slowing, growth in July, according to data released Thursday. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its manufacturing survey in July fell to 19.5 from 27.6 in June. Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions. The indexes for activity, new orders, shipments, employment and work hours were all positive but fell from June levels. The new-orders index in particular plummeted, to a reading of 2.1 from 25.9 in June. A similar report from the New York Fed released earlier this week also showed a deceleration in July.
Nick Note: another obscure but very predictive index is flashing its warning. This will end very badly
More people are renting than at any other point in the past 50 years. In 2016, 36.6 percent of household heads rented their home, close to the 1965 number of 37 percent, according to a new report by the Pew Research Center based on data from the Census Bureau. Each month the Census Bureau surveys a nationally representative sample of households. The total number of U.S. households grew by 7.6 million over the past decade, Pew reported. However, the number of households headed by owners remained relatively flat, while households headed by renters grew by nearly 10 percent during the same time period. Nick Note: You are watching the impoverishment of America. Its ugly and it will be getting far far worse.
The American workforce is under tremendous pressure, with change coming on multiple fronts. That uncertainty is leading to political and social turbulence, a new research paper suggests. One in four American jobs are at risk of being shipped overseas in the coming years and about half could be replaced by automation, according to Ball State University’s Center for Business and Economic Research. A new paper titled, “How Vulnerable are American Communities to Automation, Trade, and Urbanization. The researchers found little relationship between income and chance of offshoring. Jobs such as computer programmers, actuaries and statisticians were among the most offshorable, the researchers wrote. Those occupations have average annual wages of $80,000 or more. Nick Note: the 6th industrial revolution is upon us. See that part about revolution well its gong to be a hell of a crises. America is going to see people starving in the streets and strife not seen before since the civil war. You have been warned. You need to amass a fortune and I am here to show you how. Its ironic is it not that in the time of great crises that the most money can be made. That is if you have eyes to see. I am proud to be your eyes
Nick Note: Americans are becoming a nation of land serfs. Maximizing out their credit at every possible opportunity. Let me tell you how to beat the BIG guys. don’t sell your soul to them. Stay completely out of debt. And only buy for CASH during the wipeout. Corporate ownership of real estate and single family homes are at a record…. All on leverage. The coming real estate bust means you get to buy at ten pennies on the dollar. Wait Rent bide your time. And then buy for cash!
Fund managers see Nasdaq stocks as the most crowded trade in the world, and as a result, they trimmed technology positioning in June and reduced allocations to U.S. stocks to the lowest since 2008. For three months, Nasdaq has been dubbed the most crowded trade by global fund managers in the monthly Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey. Sixty-eight percent of the managers see global internet stocks as “expensive” and 12 percent see them in a “bubble.”
Since the 2009 market bottom, tech has been the largest overweight 80 percent of the time, according to BofA. Nick Note: Anther sign of the bubble in stocks that is about to pop. Its only a matter of time!
One of the best indicators/predictors of a stock market bust and recession is the amount of money people are borrowing against their stock. The chart above says it all. As you can see right after Margin debt peeks we get a recession. We are now at such a tipping point. The amount of margin debt in the stock market and leverage in financials is like something never seen before. Nick Note: our patience will soon be rewarded. The market crashes about a year after margin debt peeks. Observe how debt is 25% higher then the last peek in 2007. I can’t wait!
According to StarCapital Research, the U.S. has the least affordable equity market in the world, coming in last among the 40 countries and regions it analyzed on a variety of metrics.
On a price-to-forward-earnings basis, the U.S. comes in at 30, the highest level in the world. Nick Note: The U.S. has created the worlds biggest stock market bubble. The warning signs are everywhere. By the way the U.S. stock market is also the worlds most leveraged.
The Senate’s failure to replace Obamacare raises new worries for markets that Washington dysfunction will prevent the Trump administration from driving through other aspects of its agenda—most importantly tax reform. The dollar fell and Treasury yields slid, after two senators signaled late Monday that they could not support the revised bill, and in essence, declaring it dead. The dollar selling continued Tuesday and buyers moved into bonds and out of stocks, in a safety play. The Dow was down more than 100 points, in part because of Washington but also because of Goldman Sachs’ earnings issues. The Nasdaq held a tiny gain, as investors continued to seek growth in some tech names. But the move in yields was significant. Wells Fargo director of rate strategy Michael Schumacher pointed out that the 10-year yield had been as high as 2.63 percent on enthusiasm about Trump’s program and on Tuesday, it was as low as 2.25 percent. Nick Note: not quite yet. Slowly the markets and the masses are starting to figure out we have been bullshitted or Trumped. he ant gonna do squat. Better put try to make Goldman and Russia great again
Market fundamentals look fairly strong, but political fears have held investor spirits in check, Kate Moore, chief equity strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, told CNBC on Tuesday. “There’s been a tremendous amount of anxiety about taking equity risk so far this year,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” adding that the fear came despite “pretty good” earnings. “I wouldn’t call them amazing, but they’re looking pretty good in the U.S., amazing actually in some places outside the U.S. and overall economic conditions being pretty strong, we haven’t seen a willingness to take risk,” she said. “It’s really hard to quantify how much of that is because of political fear or all this negative media attention around our relationships with other countries, but I do think it has an impact on U.S. investor psyche,” Moore said. Nick Note: What wlll end this love fest is a reality check. Trump is the CAN”T do president. its the art of bad deals. A legacy his publicity people don’t want you to know. At some point people wiil come out of the TRUMP CULT and realize all he is doing is feathering his own nest and the billionaire bankers. He has no magic to make deals. no health care, no tax break for the middle class. not rip up the bad Iran deal. No wall with Mexico. no stop to China currency manipulator and trillions in cumulative trade deficits. Ill tell you what Trump will get us. The biggest stock market wipe out ever!
but Donald Trump will extend nuclear deal at least 120 more days.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s administration on Monday declared that Iran was complying with its nuclear agreement with world powers, but warned that Tehran was in default of the spirit of the accord and that Washington would look for ways to strengthen it. It was the second time Trump certified Iranian compliance with the agreement since he took office in January, despite criticizing it during the 2016 campaign as “the worst deal ever.” Trump administration officials, briefing reporters on Monday on the decision, said new economic sanctions against Iran were being prepared over its ballistic missile program and for contributing to regional tensions. Nick Note: See with a bullshitter you got to think back to what they told you and see how the lies keep changing. During Trump’s election campaign he vowed to “rip up” the nuclear agreement with Tehran if elected, calling it “the worst deal ever”. Well that was then and this is now. To add insult to injury Trump is not only NOT ripping up the “worst negotiated deal ever” deal he is certifying Iran in compliance. This is stupid dump and ignorant. Iran will get nukes and they will bolt them to their ICBM rockets and they wili use them against us. New reality show// NOT the art of the deal. The Art of bullshittting the American voters.
China’s banking regulator will tighten control over risks in the financial markets, work more closely with the central bank and other regulators, and “resolutely follow” the leadership of a newly-formed financial stability committee, it said late on Monday. The China Banking Regulatory Commission’s comments come after President Xi Jinping said on Saturday that the central bank would take a bigger role with a Financial Stability and Development Committee to be set up under the State Council. Nick Note: China knows its got a great big ugly debt crises. All the PR bulsht will not stop the China debt collasp. Give it a year and then Holy shit Batman
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York says its Empire State manufacturing index dropped to 9.8 from 19.8 in June. Any reading above zero signals expansion. July’s drop comes after the index reached a two-year high in June. Still, the reading is at a mostly healthy level. While the index measures sentiment among New York firms, it is closely followed by economists because it provides an early read on factory output nationwide. A measure of new orders dropped to 13.3 from 18.1, while a gauge of shipments dropped to 10.5 from 22.3. Hiring also slowed sharply. Readings in July for new orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times and number of employees all decelerated sharply a BAD sign for future activity. Nick Note: This is a huge drop. Confirming out other data that the economy is sucking shut. Look at the new orders component and shipments. That means this rapid slow down is not a blip but will continue into the future
A former Goldman Sachs executive toldVanity Fair for a recent profile that Cohn has been working with Jared Kushner, who is reportedly “starstruck with” Goldman Sachs globalists, and fellow former Goldman Sachs executive Dina Powell in order to temper the “reactionary influence of people around the president” like “Peter Navarro, head of the National Trade Council” and White House chief strategist Steve K. Bannon. Cohn is reportedly “dedicated to making sure the U.S. doesn’t start any ridiculous trade wars or do something ‘crazy’ on health care.” “I’m not going to let it happen,” Cohn reportedly told the former partner.
advertisement Cohn, a registered Democrat who reportedly donated to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, is rumored to be a top contender to be the next Federal Reserve chair. Cohn and Powell have reportedly been quite the tandem, teaming up in the White House to try to push Trump away from the more pro-America, nationalist policies that endeared Trump to his “people”—the country’s working-class voters who have stood by him through all of his various “scandals” while the GOP elite’s first instincts have been to bail. Nick Note: Beware of the counter revolution. Trump has sold out the masses. He is NOT going to make America great again. He is going to make the middle class poor again slaves to their record breaking debt. And he is going to make the ruling billionaire elitists wealthier then ever. Hey guys to face facts we’ve been had!
The Financial Times reported that Wells Fargo will be spinning off a number of its products “worth hundreds of millions of dollars,” according to CFO John Shrewsberry, in order to focus on and emphasize “more relevant” ones, though he did not specify what products those would be. Wells Fargo recently announced it would pay $142 million to settle a class-action lawsuit over its practice of creating fake accounts and credit cards for customers without their knowledge. The plan to reduce the number of businesses is part of an effort to restore investor confidence following the scandal, FT reported. Nick Note: Wells is in trouble. They did not do the account scam because things are going well. The truth is their Mortgage, Credit card and Car finance business are projected to generate massive loses. Remember the banks are the first to know and everyone else is the last. They cannot consolidate themselves out of the impending doom. Bye bye Wells Fargo
Janet Yellen may wait until December to raise interest rates again after weak consumer price index data and retail sales were reported Friday. Yellen said she might hike rates again this year in testimony on Capitol Hill. The wisdom guiding this year, such as investing in small cap companies and locally, has turned out to be “the complete opposite,” Duran said. “I think what we’re seeing is a complete unwind of the Trump trade that occurred from October, November, all the way to January, and everything is basically reversed out,” he said. “We were hoping to see a 2.5, 3 percent growth rate. We’re now hoping we’ll see 2 (percent).” Duran blames gridlock in Washington, saying the Trump administration has not delivered on its pro-growth promises, such as cutting regulations and taxes. Nick Note: The Fed is shocked….. Their computer models never predicted the drop in Inflation. To make matters worse the possibility that the economy would slow down never mind enter a recession was not in the cards according to the mathematical models. Well here is a news flash. GOD is not a mathematician. Bottom line inflation is dead and the US and for that matter the global economy is headed for a recession. And the Fed dos not know what to do.
Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.3 percent last month, weighed down by declines in receipts at service stations, clothing stores and supermarkets. Americans also cut back on spending at restaurants and bars, as well as on hobbies.
U.S. retail sales recorded their biggest drop in more than a year in May amid declining purchases of motor vehicles and discretionary spending.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales fell 0.3 percent last month after an unrevised 0.4 percent increase in April.
May’s decline was the largest since January 2016 and confounded economists’ expectation for a 0.1 percent gain.
May’s retail sales were revised to show a 0.1 percent dip instead of the previously reported 0.3 percent drop. Retail sales rose 2.8 percent year-on-year in June. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales slipped 0.1 percent last month after being unchanged in May. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Nick Note: Look at the year over year retail sales chart. it says it all. This is another disaster. PROOF despite all the blow and go showing the US economy is sucking shut
U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in June pointing to tame inflation that could diminish prospects of a third interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year. The Labor Department said on Friday that the unchanged reading in its Consumer Price Index came as the cost of gasoline and mobile phone services declined further. The CPI’s drop of 0.1 percent in May and the lack of a rebound in June could trouble Fed officials who have largely viewed the recent moderation in price pressures as transitory. Policymakers are confronted with benign inflation and a tight a labor market as they weigh a third rate hike. In the 12 months through June, the CPI increased 1.6 percent – the smallest gain since October 2016 – after rising 1.9 percent in May. The year-on-year CPI has been softening steadily since February, when it hit 2.7 percent. The so-called core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, edged up 0.1 percent in June, rising by the same margin for three straight months. The core CPI increased 1.7 percent year-on-year after a similar gain in May. The Fed has a 2 percent inflation target and tracks a measure which is currently at 1.4 percent. Nick Note: This report has got the Fed really spooked. Their models said low inflation was a fluke. Now its a trend. They should have never raised rates. This is another report that is warning about the coming deflation/depression.
Banks have reported the biggest surge in the number of customers missing loan repayments since the financial crisis. In the most worrying sign yet that household debt is out of control, high street lenders informed the Bank of England that default rates have soared on credit cards, personal loans, overdrafts and car finance. Default rates on credit cards are expected to get even worse over the summer. According to the Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey, 24.4 per cent more lenders reported default rates on credit cards rising rather than falling over the last three months. This is the highest figure since the start of 2009, shortly after the taxpayer bailouts of RBS and Lloyds. The picture is even more worrying on other unsecured borrowing, including personal loans and car finance, with 30.3 per cent more lenders reporting an increase in customers missing repayments. These are the worst figures since the height of the credit crisis at the end of 2008. Almost £200billion in consumer credit is owed in total – an average of around £7,700 per household – and this figure does not even include mortgages. Nick Note: Its worse in the US. debt default is growing and the banks know it. That is why the phony stress tests and why the banks are cashing out.
A new recession in Britain is ‘almost inevitable’ and increasing public spending without hiking taxes risks disaster, the economic watchdog warned today. The Office for Budget Responsibility said a range of risks confronted Britain and Brexit heightened the ‘likelihood and impact’ of some of them. It warned ministers that bowing to public pressure to open up the spending taps without paying for it via new taxes would ‘only add to the longer-term challenges’. The organisation said because debt was still at historically high levels since the financial crisis, the economy was ‘much more sensitive’ to ‘interest rate and inflation surprises’. The grim warnings came in the watchdog”s first ‘fiscal risks’ report. The watchdog said: ‘The budget is still in deficit by 2 to 3 per cent of GDP – as it was on the eve of the crisis – and net debt is more than double its pre-crisis share of GDP and not yet falling. ‘As a result, the public finances are much more sensitive to interest rate and inflation surprises than they were.’ Nick Note: this British warning should be heeded by all. A global recession that will turn into a global depression is on the horizon. All should prepare now for the greatest financial wipe out ever
Uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s policy proposals is “quite high,” Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Thursday. Yellen spoke with the Senate Banking Committee on her semi-annual monetary policy report to lawmakers. “I think fiscal policy … uncertainty is quite high at the moment,” she said, referring to policies that Congress and the White House control. She also said a potential revamp of the U.S. health-care system is one factor causing uncertainty in the economic outlook. “Spending on health care is an important aspect of household budgets, and changes there could have an affect on spending on a wide range of goods and services in the economy. And access to health care is important,” Yellen told the Senate Banking Committee. Nick Note: we are being driven more and more by Trumps meltdown “uncertainty” don’t be fooled. The Trump bump drove the market to record highs. And whatever your opinion crime or Democratic deep state fake news which hunt TRUMP has got a big ass problem. After a year of hearing form the Trump spin machine that no one proved we had contacts with Russians to help rig the elections its now settled business. Their was contact. AND AND AND their may have been more. Remember JR did not release the emails until 5 minutes before the New York Times published them.
Investors have bought into what some bankers have been calling the “immaculate conception” thought up by a group of humans led by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Does anyone see the danger to their money in believing that Fed policy makers can pull off such a miracle? The miracle, of course, is draining trillions of dollars in liquidity from the financial system without causing harm to the economy or securities.
Notice how they ballooned from under $1 trillion to $4.5 trillion. The continued excitement in the stock market today shows that investors believe the Fed will execute its plan to unwind its massive balance sheet in a manner that will enable the stock market to continue its march upwards. Nick Note: its critical you understand the FED is still providing liquidity for the banks. Even as they are allowing them to take capital out. A lot of the value of the banks is their stock price…. Which will soon be cut in half. that is why the FED is scared shit. In essence the FED’s balance sheet is being used to prop up the banks. they will never be able to stop. Its a liquidity trap. The only way out is a depression and liquidation of th dead broke banks. and yes they are broke!
(Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s pick to lead bank supervision at the Federal Reserve benefited from the government bailing out or rescuing two banks during the 2008 financial crisis, but that may not prevent his confirmation by a U.S. Senate controlled by a business-friendly Republican party, policy analysts told Reuters in recent days. Randal Quarles, a former Wall Street lawyer and U.S. Treasury official who now runs an investment firm, was part of a team that invested in troubled or failed banks while he was an executive at private-equity firm Carlyle Group LP (CG.O). Those investments earned hundreds of millions of dollars for Carlyle, profits that would not have been possible without government support. Nick Note: another member of Munshin’s gang of merry thieves who screwed millions of Americans out of their homes in the last real estate wipeout. They are putting together the F team. To screw the masses to the wall in the coming depression
Advancements in technology and globalization are chipping away at America’s middle class, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday. In an appearance before the House Financial Services Committee, Yellen said if the U.S. looks at the flight of jobs and wages from middle-class families, it must take into account how automation has eliminated several lower-skilled jobs. “Wages and jobs of middle class families that have seen diminishing opportunities and downward pressure on middle class wages, we have to take into account factors of the technological change that have eliminated middle income jobs and globalization that has reinforced the impact of tech,” said Yellen. That “has to be an important piece to understand what has happened,” she said. Nick Note: Your damn right its important to understand… the middle class is dead meat. and all the blow and go about coal great again and bringing back jobs from Mexico is little more than politicians Bullshit spin.
The Federal Reserve could scale back on its expected pace of interest rate hikes if inflation continues to be soft, Chair Janet Yellen told Congress. Under questioning over why the central bank remains committed to normalizing policy even as price and wage pressures remain muted, Yellen said the Fed is aware of the softness in data and will react if necessary. “It’s something that we’re watching very closely considering risks around the inflation outlook,” Yellen said in her semiannual remarks on Capitol Hill. “To my mind, a prudent course is to make some adjustments [in rates] as long as our forecast is that we’re heading back to 2 percent.” Nick Note: inflation is plunging and the Fed is in a crises. She is admitting here they got a problem with inflation running by their favorite indicator the PCI decreased by 0.1% that is a long way from their stated goal of 2.5%. Yes Huston we got a BIG freeging problem
The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, has said that she would not rule out another financial crisis in her lifetime, indicating that comments made recently by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen may have been premature. “There may, one day, be another crisis,” Lagarde told CNBC Tuesday on the sidelines of a joint conference with the IMF and the Croatian National Bank in Dubrovnik. Lagarde’s comments responded to a statement made by Yellen a fortnight earlier in which she said she does not expect to see another financial crisis in her lifetime. Nick Note: Yellon was forced to jump on her sword by that ridiculous statement. It was part of the PR spin preceding the release of the no stress stress test of Americas banks. In order to get away with looting the banks of their capital they had to justify it. All banks passed the joke stress test and The Chairwhore of the Federal Reserve declared a financial crises will not occur again in our lifetime. that made it OK to pay out to Wall Street insiders the banks capital as dividends, stock options and share buy back… we have been screwed by the bankers once again
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump is increasingly unlikely to nominate Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen next year for a second term, and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn is the leading candidate to succeed her, Politico reported on Tuesday, citing four people close to the process. Politico said sources in the White House, the Treasury Department and on Capitol Hill said that if Cohn decides he wants the job, he is likely to get it. “It’s Gary’s if he wants it, and I think he wants it,” Politico quoted one Republican whom it said was close to the selection process as saying. Nick Note: This is a disaster. The US financial system from Treasury to the Federal Reserve to the Controller of the Currency is being filled with investment bankers. This is the first time ever. The big banks are taking over the economy from the government to the financial world. WHY? They know they are walking dead men and they are hoping by controlling the above mentioned government agencies they will be able to be bailed out by the tax payer. The Fed Reserve is already stacked by the worlds biggest investment bank members. Cohn would join several other Goldman alumni around the Fed policymaking table, including New York Fed President William Dudley, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan.
U.S. wholesale inventories increased more than previously estimated in May as automobile stocks rose amid declining sales, but inventory investment still likely weighed on economic growth in the second quarter. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday wholesale inventories climbed 0.4 percent. That was the biggest gain since December 2016 and followed a 0.4 percent decline in April. The department reported last month that wholesale inventories increased 0.3 percent in May. Auto inventories jumped 0.7 percent after declining 1.4 percent in April. The auto sector has been hit by slowing demand.The component of wholesale inventories that goes into the calculation of gross domestic product – wholesale stocks excluding autos – increased 0.3 percent in May. A report last week showed inventories at factories slipped 0.1 percent in May. Nick Note: This is one of those reports where interpretation is subject to where we are at in the economic cycle. In a growing economy where retail sales are increasing wholesale inventories increasing is a bullish sign. And this is how the sold out financial media want you to interpret this report. But in a economy where retail sales are falling like the part of the cycle we are in this report is very very bearish. It means that due to falling sales inventories are backing up. Which means wholesalers are going to cut purchases. We will see this playing out in the import numbers.
WASHINGTON (AP) — American consumers increased their borrowing in May at the fastest pace in six months, reflecting a sharp rebound in the category that includes credit cards. The Federal Reserve reported Monday that total consumer borrowing rose by $18.4 billion in May, the strongest gain since a $25.1 billion increase in November. In addition, April’s gain of $8.2 billion, the weakest increase in nearly six years, was revised up to a more respectable increase of $12.9 billion. The strength last month reflected a greater use of credit cards, which rose by $7.4 billion, much stronger than the $1.2 billion April increase. The category that includes auto loans and student loans increased $11.05 billion, slightly lower than April’s $11.8 billion gain. Auto sales have been slowing this year after last year’s record pace. The $18.4 billion rise in credit pushed borrowing measured in the monthly report to a fresh record of $3.84 trillion. The Fed’s monthly credit report does not cover home mortgages or any other debt secured by real estate such as home equity loans. A separate report prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that total U.S. household debt, covering all loans including mortgages, reached a record high in the first quarter of this year, topping the previous peak reached in 2008 as the financial crisis was plunging the country into a deep recession. Nick Note: Record stock market bubble, record consumer debt… what more do we need to see. look out below!
Stocks have sailed along for a year and a half without a significant correction, but analysts see increasing signs of trouble ahead. Global strategists from Citigroup and JPMorgan both fired off warnings Monday about events that could affect the rally in equities. Citigroup pointed to rising rates as a threat, and JPMorgan analysts said they are concerned second-half earnings may not be as robust as the market is anticipating. Stock prices continue to rise despite concerns about lofty valuations. The S&P 500’s price-earnings ratio is 17.5 times forward 12 months earnings. Nick Note: a market trading at almost 18 times forward good time Charlie earnings is a market getting ready to crash!
Gold prices continued to move lower on Monday, setting them on track for a fresh four-month low after a solid U.S. jobs report last week backed expectations for higher U.S. interest rates later in the year. The metal lost 1.1% on Friday after the closely watched nonfarm payrolls report showed 222,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in June, easily beating expectations. That helped cement views that the Federal Reserve is likely to tighten monetary policy again later in 2017. Higher interest rates lift the appeal of holding dollars. That also means that a stronger dollar undercuts the benefit of holding nonyielding gold that is priced in the currency. Commerzbank also noted that speculative investors are continuing to dump precious metals, with net long positions in gold and silver dropping for a fourth straight week in the week to July 4. “This puts net longs at their lowest levels since February 2016 and August 2015, respectively. Short positions in silver are currently at a record high, while short and net short positions in platinum are also at an all-time high. In the past, such extreme positioning by speculative financial investors has often sparked a pronounced countermovement in prices,” they added. Nick Note: we are in a deflation entering a recession/depression. I can not think f a worse investment in times like these as precious metals.
Checking and saving accounts go together like bacon and eggs, but both are good separately, too. You don’t need to have all your accounts at the same bank. In fact, you might benefit from splitting them up. About one-third of people who switched banks recently or wanted to switch had checking and savings accounts at different banks, according to research by bank analytics firm Novantas. And about 11 percent of bank customers switched banks over the course of a year, based on Accenture’s 2016 North America consumer digital banking survey. Nick Note: Absolutely you should keep as little money as possible in banks… I love Treasury Direct. But we all need bank accounts. And the key to banks is diversify or die. We have around 3000 banks in America. The top 10 banks hold 80% of all bankable deposits. To me that is to much concentration. in the banking wipe out we wil lose 2000 institutions. impossible to figure out who will survive. So open a number of accounts in different institutions and consider geographical diversification
The Trump administration is not considering a plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans in order to pay for tax breaks for the middle class, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Sunday. Speaking on ABC’s “This Week,” Mnuchin said the administration plans to release its tax plan in early September and is aiming for a vote on Congress on it by the end of this year. The news website Axios reported that Trump’s chief strategist Steve Bannon was advocating a proposal to raise the highest tax bracket to 40 percent or above in order to pay for tax cuts on middle-class Americans. “I’ve never heard Steve mention that,” Mnuchin said. Nick Note: absolutely any tax decrease must be revenue neutral. IT is necessary to raise the taxes on the top 10% of earners to 40% as Bannon suggested. Munchin is a sell out pompous prick who only thinks about himself, his friends at Goldman Sacks and his billionaire buddies. The middle class of the US must be saved. And the first thing is a massive tax DECREASE for the working class.
Right now, U.S. oil reserves are almost in parity with those of Saudi Arabia. We have the second-most coal reserves in the world. There are enough U.S. gas reserves to last us a century. We have already passed Russia as the world’s top natural-gas producer. We are the world’s top producer of oil and petroleum hydrocarbons. And exports of liquified national gas are surging, with the Energy Department rapidly approving new LNG projects and other export terminals. All these America-first energy policies are huge economic-growth and high-wage-job producers at home. But in the Warsaw speech, Trump made it clear that America’s energy dominance will be used to help our friends across Europe. No longer will our allies have to rely on Russian Gazprom supplies with inflated, prosperity-killing prices. Nick Note: they should all be worried. The genie is out of the bottle. Cheap energy here we come AND AND AND America will be not only the worlds largest ENERGY producer…. But the worlds largest energy exporter. TO quote Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto regarding the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor by forces of Imperial Japan. “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve” And that my friends is what the Saudis have down with their global Jihad. Never forget 911 you bastards! And yes they sure as shit did it.
The Bank of Japan on Friday stepped in to tamp down an ungainly yield swing in its sovereign debt, renewing its vow to keep its long-term interest rate close to zero. The tremors of the government bond selloff rippled as far as Tokyo, pushing Japanese benchmark 10-year notes, known as JGBs TMBMKJP-10Y, -9.24% briefly to a Friday peak of 0.105%, its highest since Feb. 3., according to FactSet data. That move prompted fresh efforts by the BOJ to reverse the climb, underscoring the central bank’s unwillingness to relinquish its pursuit of holding long-term interest rates at zero, until it can nurse its economy back to health, fixed-income strategists said. Nick Note: We are talking about Japan here. One of the worlds largest issuers of government debt. And they are hell bent on keeping rates stuck on ZERO. As the global slowdown and deflation spreads rates will go lower. As we enter the coming global recession/depression I believe rates will go double digit negative…….. AS you know we have a trade for that!
Boeing Co (BA.N) said on Friday it delivered 183 jetliners in the second quarter, down from 199 a year earlier. The company delivered 123 of its single-aisle 737s in the latest quarter, compared with 127 in the same period a year ago. Deliveries of its 787 Dreamliners fell to 33 in the three months ended June, from 38. The world’s biggest planemaker is transitioning to a newer version of its most popular aircraft, the 737. The company delivered the first 737 MAX, the latest version of the single-aisle jet, to Malaysia-based Malindo Air in May. Boeing also said on Friday it booked total orders of 212 aircraft in the second quarter. Nick Note: You may recall we reported to you the fact that Boeing was cutting back on employees. We now know why. And it indicates this is a trend not a one off event.
LONDON (AP) — Official figures show that industrial production in Britain fell 0.1 percent in May from the previous month, further evidence that the slowdown in the British economy is getting broader. The decline reported by the Office for National Statistics was unexpected — the consensus among economists was for a 0.4 percent increase. Economists said the weak outcome suggests second-quarter growth will likely be weak. In the first three months, the British economy grew a quarterly rate of 0.2 percent, the lowest of all Group of Seven industrial economies. Kay Daniel Neufeld, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said “lack of clarity” about Britain’s future trading relationship with the European Union is weighing on manufacturing. That uncertainty, he added, was exacerbated by the general election campaign during May. Nick Note: We have Industrial production the world over dropping. So far the US, China, Japan and now England have all reported drops in industrial production