Bitcoin hits record high, nears $300 billion market capitalization

The digital currency bitcoin rallied on Monday, hitting its latest in a series of records in the first full day of trading for bitcoin futures. The price of a single bitcoin BTCUSD, -0.68% rose 14.5% to $17,209.28, according to data and news website Coindesk. Earlier, it hit a record of $17,382.64, which represented a new high for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, taking out a record hit last Thursday. At its current size, bitcoin has a market capitalization of $290.6 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Only 10 components of the S&P 500 have a higher market cap. On Sunday, Cboe Global Markets launched its bitcoin futures contract, which allows leveraged bets on the price of bitcoin. The introduction of futures was seen as a legitimizing milestone in the history of bitcoin, which has been soaring all year. The digital currency ended 2016 below $1,000, and has soared more than 17-fold since then. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.01% rose 0.3% on Monday, bringing its year-to-date advance to 18.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.32% closed 0.2% higher on the day. Both ended at records.

Tax overhaul could mean major changes to your paycheck

If Republicans succeed in passing a tax overhaul by Christmas, the law could mean major changes for your take-home pay — not all of them welcome.

But those changes probably won’t be reflected in your paycheck in time for the New Year. The American Payroll Association, whose members represent 17,000 employers, warned lawmakers Monday that they were creating a “herculean task” for companies and payroll service providers by leaving them such a short time to start implementing the new provisions, which would take effect on January 1, 2018. “Our members are already starting to panic, on behalf of themselves and millions of employees, about the effect on 2018 withholdings of a tax bill that will be effective a week after its enactment,” the APA said in a letter. That’s because the tax overhaul would make fundamental changes to gauging how much tax should be withheld from your paycheck so that you’re not left with a big tax bill when you file your federal return. Both the tax bill passed by the House and the one passed by the Senate would double the standard deduction and eliminate personal exemptions. They also would change the income tax brackets and alter various family credits.

In addition, some of the once tax-free workplace benefits may become taxable wages. And there may be changes to how much federal tax is automatically withheld on any bonus, commission or other “supplemental wages.” They’ve been taxed at 25% since 2007, but that rate may go up to 28% under a new tax law, the APA said.

The changes in your paycheck, though, won’t be immediate. Figure not until at least late January. Nick Note: See taxes going up by 3% minium  is called a tax increase….. Not the greatest reduction in taxes EVER!

 

N.Korea: Blockade would be ‘declaration of war’

North Korea said Sunday that a maritime blockade would be a declaration of war, in reference to one of the new sanctions the United States mentioned it could impose on Pyongyang. The comments came as the U.S., South Korea and Japan launched rocket tracking drills today aimed at improving detection and monitoring of the isolated regime’s ballistic missile tests. Nick Note: Pay attention here. Trumps missteps will get the nukes flying…….. I have no problem wining a war with nukes if necessary. But is this the smartest way to do this?. I think not. Simply stage  A LOT of nukes in Japan and in South Korea. And see how fast the Chinese solve or  problem.

Ford’s November China vehicle sales drop 8 percent year-on-year

(Reuters) – Ford Motor Co’s (F.N) sales in China fell 8 percent in November from a year ago, following a 5 percent decline in October, the U.S. automaker said on Monday.The firm’s sales in the first 11 months of the year totaled 1.06 million vehicles, down 6  Ford’s China sales growth has lagged behind rivals in the world’s top auto market this year, with the carmaker now looking to overhaul its strategy to revive growth in China under new chief executive Jim Hackett. Among other moves, the review of its China operations will likely see Ford focus on segments such as electric cars and electric commercial vans, with China encouraging to help clean up its polluted and congested city centers. Ford is looking to roll out more new-energy vehicles for China and is planning to experiment with a more direct selling approach in a partnership with Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Nick Note: i thought their were 1.2 billion people wanting to buy cars.. That HAVE MONEY!!!! Guess not!

GDPNow Q4 forecast dips to 2.9%

Plugging the data in from this morning’s job report, the Atlanta Fed tracker now sees Q4 GDP growth of 2.9% vs. 3.2% earlier in the week, and as high as 4.5% in early November. The Blue Chip consensus forecast remains at about 2.7%. Nick Note: For the year we predict a GDP south of 3%. A real nothing burger. And the Trump bump is no where to be seen. And next year things will be worse.

Real Unemployment increases to 8%, NET new jobs increased by only 57,000

Only 57,000 more Americans gain employment over the month

People stand in line as they wait to get into the JobNewsUSA job fair
People stand in line as they wait to get into the JobNewsUSA job fair / Getty Images

The unemployment rate measures the percent of those who did not have a job and actively looked for one over the month.

The “real” unemployment rate, otherwise known as the U-6 measure, was 8.0 percent in November, which increased  from the 7.9 percent seen in October.

There were 148,000 more Americans who joined the labor force in November, while 35,000 Americans left the labor force. In October, there were 160,381,000 Americans in the civilian labor force, which increased to 160,529,000 in November. The labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of Americans that has a job or actively looked for one in the past month, remained steady in November at 62.7 percent. The number of employed Americans increased from 153,861,000 in October to 153,918,000 in November, an increase of 57,000 individuals. Nick Note: when you look at the REAL numbers NET number of employed persons increased by only 57,000 and the unemployment rate fell. But America has become a Hollywood stage. Truth has nothing to do with a sound bite

Reagan budget expert Stockman says Republican tax overhaul won’t create jobs or lift pay

Wikimedia Commons/Gage Skidmore David Stockman speaks at an April event at the home of former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul in Lake Jackson, Texas.

David Stockman, director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, is no fan of the current Republican tax-overhaul effort, saying this on MSNBC about the pending legislation:

‘This bill is of the lobbyists, by the PACs and for the money.’

The so-called Father of Reaganomics’s remark was not linked to any withering away of his conservative bona fides nor a shift in his party affiliation.  Stockman, for instance, said President Donald Trump’s instinct is correct: The economy is not in great shape and needs help. But, he said, the Republican tax plan as it’s taken shape is hardly the solution to the economic woes of Trump’s voters in the Rust Belt. Had helping them really been the goal, said Stockman, a payroll-tax reduction would have been the right instrument. That, he said, would be an effective means of boosting pay and driving job creation.

Instead, Stockman later said in a Bloomberg interview, “this massive tax cut” is “essentially going to do nothing good for the economy” but will “add to the national debt, you know, upwards of a trillion and a half [dollars] over the next four or five years.”

Since businesses already face “the lowest cost of borrowing in recorded history,” per Stockman, there is no reason that lowering the corporate tax rate or the tax benefit afforded pass-through entities will lead to anything other than “more stock buybacks, more dividends, more financial engineering.” Nick Note: He is right this is a economic disaster. All it does is given trillions of dollars to giant corporation and billionaires. While it increases taxes for the middle class, slash programs for retirees and the poor. AND increases taxes for the middle class and causes the deficit to soar.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Drop More Than Expected In October

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A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed wholesale inventories in the U.S. decreased by more than expected in the month of October. The report said wholesale inventories fell by 0.5 percent in October after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in September. Economists had expected inventories to edge down by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.3 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

The bigger than expected decrease was primarily due to a steep drop in inventories of non-durable goods, which tumbled by 1.3 percent.

Inventories of farm products, drugs, and miscellaneous non-durable goods showed notable decreases during the month. On the other hand, the report said inventories of durable goods ticked up by 0.1 percent, reflecting a sharp jump in metal inventories. The Commerce Department also said wholesale sales increased by 0.7 percent in October after surging up by 1.4 percent in September. Sales of durable goods jumped by 1.3 percent during the month, while sales of non-durable goods edged up by 0.2 percent. With sales rising and inventories falling, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers dipped to 1.25 in October from 1.26 in September.

More than $60 million worth of bitcoin potentially stolen after hack on cryptocurrency site

Hackers may have made off with more than $60 million worth of bitcoin
Hackers may have made off with more than $60 million worth of bitcoin

Hackers may have gotten away with $60 million worth of bitcoin after a cyber attack hit the cryptocurrency mining platform NiceHash. Users highlighted the cyber breach on Reddit and Twitter Wednesday, with some saying they could lose hundreds of dollars. NiceHash lets people offer computing capacity for bitcoin miners to mine digital currencies. Cryptocurrency miners work out complex mathematical equations to add cryptocurrency transactions to decentralized public ledgers called blockchains. The mining marketplace initially said its service was undergoing “maintenance”on Twitter, later adding it was “working hard” to resolve issues affecting the site NiceHash said in a statement it was “investigating the nature of the incident,” and that it would close down its site for a day. “We are working to verify the precise number of BTC (bitcoin) taken,” the company said. “Clearly, this is a matter of deep concern and we are working hard to rectify the matter in the coming days.In addition to undertaking our own investigation, the incident has been reported to the relevant authorities and law enforcement and we are co-operating with them as a matter of urgency.” While NiceHash was unable to specify how much bitcoin had been stolen, users have pointed to a bitcoin wallet which holds 4,736.42 bitcoins — equivalent to $68 million. This wouldn’t be the first time people have lost millions in cryptocurrency. In November, millions of dollars worth of Ethereum were “accidentally” frozen on the cryptocurrency wallet provider Parity after a user “suicided” the wallet, deleting its code and freezing all ether tokens contained within. Nick Note: Fortunes will be made and fortunes will be lost in Bitcoin. It is a great opportunity for us.  see Radio Free Wall Street December 7 live streaming TV webcast and coming updates

U.S. Consumer Credit Jumps $20.5 Billion In October, More Than Expected

Consumer credit in the U.S. increased by more than anticipated in the month of October, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday. The Fed said consumer credit spiked by $20.5 billion in October after surging up by a downwardly revised $19.2 billion in September. Economists had expected consumer credit to climb by $17.5 billion compared to the $20.8 billion jump originally reported for the previous month. The report said non-revolving credit such as student loans and car loans increased by $12.2 billion in October after climbing by $13.2 billion in September. Revolving credit, which largely reflects credit card debt, also rose by $8.3 billion in October following a $6 billion increase in the previous month.

Consumer credit climbed by an annual rate of 6.5 percent in October, as revolving credit jumped by 9.9 percent and non-revolving credit surged up by 5.3 percent.

Nick Note: Consumer debt is climbing at twice the growth of GDP. What makes it worse is the fact that debt is climbing 10 times faster then wages. A debt bubble that will soon burst.

Treasury yields tick lower

Treasurys edged higher Thursday, pushing yields down marginally, a day ahead of a November employment report investors will be watching for clues to the pace of potential Federal Reserve interest-rate rises in 2018.The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y,  +0.84%  ticked half a basis point lower to 2.325%, from 2.330% on late Wednesday, while the yield on the 2-year note TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.23%  declined 1.6 basis point to 1.790%, from 1.806%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond TMUBMUSD30Y, +1.08% also known as the long bond, fell 0.7 basis point to 2.712%, versus 2.719%. Yields and debt prices move in opposite directions. Nick Note: The yield curve is flattening. It is a stark warning sign a massive deflation is coming. Fed coming rate increases are  a colossal error.. The Fed is famous for just such mistakes.

Ford to move planned electric car production to Mexico from Michigan

Ford Motor Company plans to produce a future electric car in Mexico rather than in the U.S., reversing its January announcement that the Flat Rock, Mich., assembly plant would serve as its main electric vehicle production site, WSJ reports.

Ford plans instead to convert the suburban Detroit factory into a manufacturing hub for future driverless vehicles, hiking its anticipated investment in the plant to $900M from $700M foreseen previously. Redirecting electric vehicle production to Mexico is about more than cutting costs, Ford President of Global Markets Jim Farley tells WSJ, as the move will make room for the Flat Rock factory to serve as Ford’s “center of excellence” for autonomous vehicles. Nick Note:  Does the DONALD know about this. I seem to remember consequences…. and i sure as shit remember that NO company would move red blooded AMERICAN jobs to one of them their FERIGN places. Shit let me know when you see the Twitter on this. Do you think President Trump will send a SWAT team to Jim Farley’s house in the middle of the night??? We are making America GREAT again!! if he does not stop this the next thing you know they will be moving coal mines down south!

White House budget office prepares agencies for possible shutdown

White House budget office prepares agencies for possible shutdown

The White House budget office is preparing for the possibility of a government shutdown as Republican leaders scramble to reach a funding deal by the end of this week. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) officials held a conference call with federal agencies on Dec. 1 to ensure that they are planning for a potential funding lapse. Current money runs out midnight on Friday. Such calls are required exactly one week before funding expires, OMB said, regardless of whether that scenario seems likely or not.  During past calls warning of a shutdown, OMB officials have urged agencies to begin preparing notices to all employees, as well as a list of “essential” employees who would continue working in the event of a shutdown. “Prudent management requires that agencies be prepared for the possibility of a lapse,” a spokeswoman said. President Trump said Wednesday that a shutdown “could happen,” and that if it does, Democrats would be to blame. But conservative factions within the GOP are debating with Republican leadership about their short-term spending strategy. They are inching toward a deal that would involve a two-week continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government through Dec. 22, but the House Freedom Caucus and defense hawks want leadership to pass a separate defense spending bill along with the next second CR that will be needed. Nick Note: Trump is playing a dangerous game here to get tax break bonanza for billionaires passed

U.S. Service Sector Growth Slows More Than Expected In November

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Activity in the U.S. service sector grew at a slower than expected rate in the month of November, the Institute for Supply Management revealed in a report released on Tuesday. The ISM said its non-manufacturing index dropped to 57.4 in November from 60.1 in October, although a reading above 50 still indicates growth in the service sector. Economists had expected the index to dip to 59.0. “The rate of growth has lessened in the non-manufacturing sector after two very strong months of growth,” said Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. The bigger than expected decrease by the non-manufacturing index was partly due to a notable slowdown in the pace of new orders growth, with the new orders index tumbling to 58.7 in November from 62.8 in October. The ISM released a separate report last Friday showing a modest slowdown in the pace of growth in manufacturing activity in the month of November. The purchasing managers index dipped to 58.2 in November from 58.7 in October. Nick Note: its early yet in the game. When the tax bill form hell becomes law and it raises taxes it will be a colossal screw up. And really slow the economy

Gold slides to four-month lows as sentiment stays bearish

Comex gold tumbles to near four-month lows, weighed by strength in the U.S. dollar and stock market as well as upbeat economic data; gold currently -0.9% at $1,266.30/oz, silver -1.6% at $16.11/oz. “Sentiment is bearish for gold… The rise in U.S. trade deficit numbers tells us of the strength of the U.S. economy until the first quarter of next year,” says Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants, adding that the continued rise in bitcoins also is holding down gold prices. “The economic backdrop is benign, meaning there is no real reason to jump into gold,” says Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

Overall physical demand is down to multi-year lows, so even outside the investment community, there is no real push into gold from the likes of China and India.”

Nick Note: Gold is dead meat and so is silver. Its going to go a LOT lower.

US trade deficit rises to $48.7 billion on record imports

WASHINGTON (AP) — Record imports lifted the U.S. trade deficit to $48.7 billion in October, highest since January. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the trade gap rose 8.6 percent in October from $44.9 billion in September. Imports hit a record $244.6 billion in October, and exports were unchanged at $195.9 billion. A trade deficit means that the United States is buying more goods and services from other countries than it is selling them. A rising trade gap reduces U.S. economic growth.

 President Donald Trump views America’s massive trade deficits as a sign of economic weakness. He blames them on bad trade deals and abusive practices by China and other trade partners. Conventional economists argue that trade deficits are largely caused not by flawed trade agreements or cheating by particular countries but by a bigger economic force: Americans spend more than they produce, and imports have to fill in the gap.

So far this year, the United States is running a trade deficit of $462.9 billion, up 11.9 percent from a year earlier. U.S. exports are up 5.3 percent this year

The politically sensitive trade deficit in goods with China rose 1.7 percent to $35.2 billion from September to October and is up 7 percent this year to $309 billion. In October, the United States ran a surplus of $20.3 billion with the rest of the world in services such as banking and tourism. But that was overwhelmed by a $69.1 billion deficit in the trade of goods. Nick Note: i though Trump was going to make America great again? The problem is he has done NOTHING and as a result the trade deficit is soaring. Another example of you can talk shit…. But you got to do something  besides publicity stunts at air conditioner manufacturing plants

 

Republican tax bill is ‘fiscally irresponsible’ and based on ‘delusional’ assumption, investor says

 

The Trump administration’s tax reform bill is “fiscally irresponsible” and an assumption that growth will pay for the cuts is “delusional” — according to a top fixed income investment house. “This is going to produce larger and larger deficits which will have to have to be made up at some point in the future,” said Kapstream Capital Portfolio Manager Steve Goldman, who helps to oversee more than $11.8 billion dollars in funds under management. “In the short run, it looks like this is going to add somewhere between 0.2 and 0.3 percent to annualized growth, so it’s a good short-run story,” Goldman told CNBC’s “The Rundown.” “Republicans have normally been known as the fiscally responsible party. This isn’t something that you would call fiscally responsible,” he said. The Senate GOP tax plan will increase the deficit by more than $1.4 trillion over a decade, according to analysis by the Congressional Budget Office. That includes money for additional debt service payments due to the bill. “I don’t think there is any credible economist or study that would show that growth will make up for the losses that we will see in the deficit. That would be delusional thinking,” added Goldman. Nick Note: this tax bill gets uglier and uglier by the day. it increases taxes on the middle class and adds 2 trillion to the budget deficit to give billionaires a tax break…. UGLY!!!!

Trump picks economist Marvin Goodfriend for Fed board

 Widely respected monetary economist would provide academic heft

Bloomberg Marvin Goodfriend, professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University.

President Donald Trump nominated Marvin Goodfriend, a former Federal Reserve economist and current Carnegie Mellon University professor, for a spot on the central bank’s board of governors on Wednesday. If confirmed by the Senate, Goodfriend would fill one of three vacancies on the Fed’s powerful seven-member board.  Goodfriend, a widely respected monetary economist, would provide academic heft on a board that now has just two economists, including Yellen. He has criticized the Fed’s buying of mortgage-backed securities as part of its postcrisis asset purchases aimed at lowering long-term interest rates. He has said the Fed should limit its bond-buying to Treasury securities except in limited circumstances when it has been given explicit permission by Congress. Nick Note: I know this guy and he is a great economist and a big proponent of Negative interest rates. Now for you to turn Negative rates, that are coming for sure in my opinion, you need a pile of CASH and Zero coupon bonds principal portion

US Gross National Debt Jumps $723 billion in 12 Weeks, Yellen “Very Worried about Sustainability of US Debt Trajectory”

Even as lawmakers are trying to cobble together a tax-cut bill that would cut revenues by $1.5 trillion over ten years, the gross national debt has spiked $723 billion over the past 12 weeks since Congress suspended the “debt ceiling.” It just hit $20.57 trillion, or 105% of GDP. Over the past six years, since November 2011, the gross national debt has surged nearly 40%, or by $5.8 trillion. Back in 2011, gross national debt amounted to 95% of GDP. Before the Financial Crisis, it was at 63% of GDP. There are no signs that the relentless rise in the debt is slowing down. On the contrary – the tax cuts are going to steepen the curve:

In the chart above, note the last three debt-ceiling fights – the flat lines in 2013, 2015, and 2017, followed each time by an enormous spike when the debt ceiling was lifted or suspended, and when the “extraordinary measures” with which the Treasury keeps the government afloat were reversed. And the Fed is getting increasingly nervous about the “sustainability” of this debt.

Hedge fund Tudor shuts one portfolio; Jones to play bigger role

BOSTON (Reuters) – Paul Tudor Jones, one of Wall Street’s most prominent investors, is restructuring his Tudor Investment Corp. by liquidating one portfolio and planning to play a bigger role in managing money at the hedge fund firm he founded nearly four decades ago.

Jones told investors he was shuttering the five-year-old Tudor Discretionary Macro funds and that Andrew Bound and Aadarsh Malde, the portfolio’s co-chief investment officers, would be leaving.

“It has been a frustrating several years for macro trading and for me especially,” the 63-year old billionaire wrote to investors in a Nov. 30 letter seen by Reuters on Friday. “But I believe the environment is on the verge of a significant change.” The move comes as some prominent hedge funds have struggled in the face of poor returns and investor redemptions. On Thursday, Neil Chriss announced plans to shut Hutchin Hill Capital and earlier in the year Eric Mindich closed Eton Park. Nick Note: How far the mighty have fallen. It always that way. They just NEVER EVER see the coming wipeout. This is just the start! Less then 174 days to the biggest stock market wipe out ever. I know of NO fund positioned correctly. They will  ALL go down.

NBC: Kushner Told Flynn to Contact Russians Last Year

Image: NBC: Kushner Told Flynn to Contact Russians Last Year

Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, directed Michael Flynn, then a Trump adviser, to contact Russian officials around Dec. 22 about a UN resolution regarding Israel, NBC News reported on Friday, citing two people familiar with the matter.

Flynn, who later briefly served as Trump’s national security adviser, pleaded guilty earlier on Friday to lying to the FBI about contacts with Russia’s ambassador, and prosecutors said he consulted with a senior official in Trump’s presidential transition team before speaking to the envoy. Nick Note: This is a GREAT big AWE SHIT. You are watching the end of the Trump Presidency. This will end up in the Trump Depression. Love Trump Hate Trump he is toast. Protect yourself!

Fed’s Bullard: ‘Material risk’ of yield curve inversion late next year

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Chris Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard warned on Friday of a key “bearish signal” emerging for the economy if the Fed continues raising interest rates as fast as policymakers currently intend, and called on his colleagues to move more cautiously in the drive to more normal monetary policy.

Bullard said that as it stands, within a year short-term interest rates, pushed higher by Fed action, may move above long-term interest rates — an “inversion” of the yield curve that is classically taken as a signal of economic weakness.

 

With the spread between one-year and 10-year Treasury bonds currently around 0.73, and the latest Fed forecasts showing three rate increases next year, the yield curve could invert during 2018. “There is a material risk…if the (Federal Open Market Committee) continues on its present course,” Bullard said. Inversion “is a naturally bearish signal…This deserves market and policymaker attention.” Bullard said policymakers and investors “need to take the possibility of a yield curve inversion seriously.” Nick Note our damn straight the yield curve WILL invert. And the economy will be in a recession that will lead to the TRUMP DEPRESSION………..

China’s Factory Growth Weakest In 5 Months

China’s Factories Slowing: Debt Crises Next

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China’s factory activity expanded at the weakest pace in five months in November as subdued growth in new orders and a substantial fall in employment coincided with a decline in business sentiment, survey results from IHS Markit showed Friday. The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 50.8 in November from 51.0 in October. Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics, said he expects growth momentum to weaken further in the coming months as the drags from slower credit growth, reduced fiscal support and the environmental crackdown all intensify. Although goods producers continued to increase their production levels in October, the rate of growth was moderate overall, survey results from Markit showed.

As has been the case in each month since November 2013, staff numbers at Chinese manufacturers declined in November. The rate of job shedding was the fastest seen in three months. Reflective of marginal growth in production, firms raised their buying activity slightly in November. Difficulties in obtaining inputs alongside higher raw material prices in international markets underpinned a further sharp rise in input costs faced by Chinese manufacturers. Consequently, companies raised their prices charged at a solid pace. Relatively muted growth in new work coincided with weaker optimism towards the 12-month outlook for production. Notably, the degree of positive sentiment was the joint-weakest seen since the series began in April 2012. Nick Note: China is starting to slow down. Be ready for the biggest credit wipeout in the history of the human race. Chinese miracle…. YEA RIGHT!!!! you mean Chinese debt orgy!

Hedge fund Hutchin Hill shuts down after three bad years

BOSTON (Reuters) – Hedge fund manager Neil Chriss said on Thursday he is closing his $2.2 billion firm Hutchin Hill Capital LP after three years of poor performance. Chriss, whose firm is made up of teams that trade different strategies, wrote to clients that the best way forward is to “proactively return capital as expeditiously as possible.”“We fought hard, but did not deliver the performance that you expected from us,” Chriss wrote in the letter dated Nov. 30 and seen by Reuters on Thursday. Hutchin Hill, founded in 2007, is the latest high-profile casualty in the ravaged hedge fund industry. One-time stars Eric Mindich and Richard Perry made headlines when they shuttered their once-prominent firms earlier this year and in 2016, respectively. Despite the efforts, Chriss wrote that it does not make sense to continue with a smaller team and less money under management. He said he expects all investors to get their money back by the end of the first quarter of 2018. Chriss, who earned a doctorate in mathematics from the University of Chicago, previously worked for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and legendary trader Steven Cohen’s SAC Capital, where he headed SAC’s quantitative strategies division. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, which tracks hedge fund performance, has gained 7.2 percent in the first 10 months of 2017, marking its best return since 2013, data from Hedge Fund Research show. Nick Bit: In the coming crash they will all shrivel up and die. And investors will get back little more then a we are sorry letter!

Cautious Carl Icahn says market has gotten into a ‘euphoric state’

Carl Icahn
Carl Icahn: Markets are in a euphoric state

Carl Icahn issued a warning about the stock market on Thursday.

“I really think even though earnings are going to be very good … I just think this thing has gotten into a euphoric state,” the billionaire activist investor told Scott Wapner on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.”

But the investor did acknowledge there is a lot of underlying strength to the market. “It’s run away and there might be a big correction but I can’t say it’s insane,” he said. The widely watched Dow Jones industrial average crossed 24,000 for the first time Thursday as corporate America and investors put their hopes on the passage of tax cuts. Nick Bit: This is the bubble blow off top. Head for the hills the stock market will crash within the next 175 days… You have been warned take the money and run. Better yet short the shit out of this insanity

Goldman Warns That Market Valuations Are at Their Highest Since 1900

Goldman’s Oppenheimer Expects Pace of Growth to Slow
A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
 “It has seldom been the case that equities, bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time, only in the Roaring ’20s and the Golden ’50s,” Goldman Sachs International strategists including Christian Mueller-Glissman wrote in a note this week. “All good things must come to an end” and “there will be a bear market, eventually” they said.

As central banks cut back their quantitative easing, pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer-dated bonds, returns are “likely to be lower across assets” over the medium term, the analysts said. A second, less likely, scenario would involve “fast pain.” Stock and bond valuations would both get hit, with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved a negative growth shock, or a growth shock alongside an inflation pick-up.

“Elevated valuations increase the risk of draw-downs for the simple reason that there is less buffer to absorb shocks,” the strategists wrote. “The average valuation percentile across equity, bonds and credit in the U.S. is 90 percent, an all-time high.” Nick Note: we are getting unprecedented warnings across the board. Wall Street is shitting bricks and these warnings are part of cover their ass strategy from the legal department. Notice they still can’t mouth the cursed sell word. Never mind they are giving you NO TRADES to caver your ass never mind how to cash in on the greatest wipe out EVER!!!! Thats OK you have me for that!

Even the Fed is worried about the “Goldilocks” market

US equities surged higher on Tuesday, posting their best one-day gain since September despite a ballistic missile launch by North Korea and an apparent breakdown in bipartisan budget talks. Bank stocks rallied sharply, thanks to the GOP’s tax overhaul getting through the Senate Budget Committee — clearing the way for a vote by the whole chamber later this week. As a result, the Dow Jones industrials index is closing in on the 24,000 level, just a month after crossing the 23,000 threshold, in what has been one of the most persistent, volatility-free uptrends in history.

But now, even the Fed is adding its voice to the chorus of Wall Street analysts worried the market has gone too far and is ripe of a nasty turnaround. In the minutes of its latest policy meeting, Fed officials expressed concerns about market “imbalances” and the possibility of a “sharp reversal” in prices.

In a recent note to clients, Morgan Stanley (MS) analysts warned that heading into the new year, “markets seem very late cycle, and valuations look extremely rich.” They anticipate trouble will start to materialize in the credit markets, which typically sniff out a rise in default rates one year ahead of time.  Goldman Sachs (GS) warned that the “goldilocks” conditions that have fueled the market’s rise — complacency fueled by low volatility and central bank largesse — are unlikely to continue into 2018. Consider this: If stocks finish November near current levels, it will represent the 13th consecutive monthly gain on a total return basis. That hasn’t happened in the 90 years of tracking this data. This is one of the longest and most expensive bull markets ever. A growing number of stocks are pushing to new lows — setting off a cluster of ominous-sounding technical patterns including “Hindenburg Omens” and “Titanic Syndromes.” There’s no other way to say this: The Fed’s easy money has created a monster. And now, the central bank is starting to fear it.  Nick Bit: The end of this insanity is near…

US markets looking ‘overstretched’ and could trigger a sharp reversal, ECB vice president says

Victor Constancio
Horacio Villalobos | Corbis | Getty Images Victor Constancio
The vice-president of the European Central Bank (ECB) warned Wednesday that current high valuations in U.S. equities could spark a possible correction in global stock markets. Speaking to CNBC, Vitor Constancio said: “Certainly the cyclically-adjusted price (to) earnings ratio in the U.S. is well-above historical averages.”

This ratio is an important metric used by traders to gauge the value of stocks. The fact that they are above their usual average means that there’s the risk of a potential overvaluation in the U.S. stock market — which could potentially lead to a reversal.

“We see that some markets are overstretched or at least with indicators that are away above the historical averages,” Constancio told CNBC.

“At the same time we can see that volatility both in the equity and the bond market is very low, which experiences shows in those situations some events may trigger a sudden revision of expectations by investors,” the Portuguese banker said.

The ECB believes there is the risk that this overall sense of optimism is miscalculated, which could end up shaking financial markets once money managers realize they took on more risk than they could handle. Nick Note: this guy is a diplomat and politician. This is about as aggresive as he can get. Translation: The  market is a freeging bubble and ts about to burst and when it does not if its going to wipe a lot of people,out

Powell says the U.S. no longer has too-big-to-fail banks

Next Fed boss Powell says some Wall Street rules too strict

Bloomberg, Getty Images, Regions
Are any large U.S. banks too big to fail? The incoming chairman of the Federal Reserve says “no.”

The likely next chairman of the Federal Reserve said he thinks the U.S. is no longer in any danger of banks “too big to fail.” In a Senate confirmation hearing, Jerome Powell said regulators have “made a great deal of progress” through stress testing and other means to ensure the failure of a big bank would not harm the broader U.S. economy. “I would answer no,” Powell said when asked if any banks were still too big to fail In an exchange with Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a harsh critic of Wall Street, Powell said he believes current rules are sufficient to prevent a replay of the financial crisis. He said he saw no need for stricter rules and hoped as chairman to look for ways to ease what he viewed as excessive regulations. “I am deeply concerned that you believe the rules are too hard on Wall Street banks,” she said, pressing Powell to point to any regulations he thinks need to be strengthened. Nick Note: not only do we have banks that will fail…. But they are to big and to broke to bail.

New-home sales Up 6% at 645,000…Still DOWN 50% of the 1,380,000 rate 10 years ago

 The housing cycle grinds on, with little real  momentum And LOTS of HYPE!!!!

Bloomberg News/Landov Construction work outside newly built homes in Colorado.

The numbers: New-home sales are  running at a 685,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate that was 6.2% half their previous highs when sales were at at 1,380,000.  .Sales of newly constructed homes skyrocketed in September, and most economists expected a pullback, to a 620,000 pace, in October. But September’s figure, originally reported as 667,000, was reduced to 645,000. “The sector is in little danger of seeing inventories pile up any time soon,” wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist for Amherst Pierpont Securities. “A dearth of quality listings of both new and existing homes remains one of the primary reasons that home sales haven’t risen further. New home inventories crept a little higher in October, but the months’ supply slid to 4.9 and has been below the 6 month level that has traditionally signaled a balanced market for more than three years running.” Nick Bit: What recovery? Half is half!

Senate GOP Tax Bill Hurts Poor, Benefits Rich More, CBO Says

Image: Senate GOP Tax Bill Hurts Poor, Benefits Rich More, CBO Says
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (AP Photo/ (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)

The Senate GOP tax bill will hurt the poor more than expected, according to a CBO report released on Sunday, while those making more than $100,000 annually will receive substantial tax cuts, The Washington Post reported.The Senate tax proposal also would add $1.4 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office said.  The CBO released its report as Republicans leaders were pushing for a vote as early as this week.

The Post reported that Americans earning less than $30,000 a year would be worse off under the Senate bill by 2019, the CBO determined. Americans earning $40,000 or less would be net losers in 2021, and by 2027, people earning less than $75,000 a year would be worse off.

Millionaires and Americans making $100,000 to $500,000 would be big beneficiaries, according to CBO calculations, per the Post. The poor’s dilemma will be heightened by receiving less government aid for health care.

Senate Republican leadership wants to vote on their tax legislation as early as this week and then attempt to combine it with a different tax overhaul that passed the House of Representatives earlier this month, according to National Public Radio. Some senators, though, are worried about the growing budget deficit under the plan. Arizona U.S. senators Jeff Flake and John McCain along with Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker have made their concerns about the budget deficit public, Politico reported. Nick Bit: as we have been telling  its the Budget Buster Tax Break for Billionaires Bonanza.

$10,000 in sight for bitcoin as it rockets to new record high

LONDON (Reuters) – Bitcoin’s vertiginous ascent showed no signs of stopping on Monday, with the cryptocurrency soaring to another record high just a few percent away from $10,000 after gaining more than a fifth in value over the past three days alone. The digital currency has seen an eye-watering tenfold increase in its value since the start of the year, and has more than doubled in value since the beginning of October. It BTC=BTSP surged 4.5 percent on the day on Monday to trade at $9,687 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange. Bitcoin’s price has been helped in recent months by the announcement that the world’s biggest derivatives exchange operator CME Group would start offering bitcoin futures. The company said last week the futures would launch by the end of the year though no precise date had been set. “$10k is on the cards and bitcoin seems to be straining at the leash to reach it,” said Charles Hayter, founder of cryptocurrency data anaylsis website Cryptocompare. “Promises of bitcoin futures opening the door to institutional money are supercharging the price.” Nick Note: What a great short… of course timing will be critical

Black Friday, Thanksgiving Day foot traffic falls

Shoppers purchase electronics and other items at a Best Buy on November 26, 2015, in San Diego, California.
Getty Images Shoppers purchase electronics and other items at a Best Buy on November 26, 2015, in San Diego, California.
Foot traffic at retailers across the country this holiday weekend  was not as strong  when compared to last year, a retail tracking firm said on Saturday, despite effusive early results from some retailers. Preliminary data tracking shoppers’ visits to physical stores on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday shows a year-over-year decline of 1.6 percent, ShopperTrak said. Meanwhile, store visits solely on Black Friday dropped  1 percent compared with 2016. Separate figures suggested that, rather than going into brick-and-mortar stores, an increasing number of consumers turned to their mobile phones during the entire month of November to shop for deals. Though many retailers have boasted long lines at stores this year, the growth looks muted at best. Meantime, more companies are pushing discounts earlier in the month, and promoting Black Friday sales simultaneously via the Web. “We know that opening on Thanksgiving Day was merely pulling shopping visits from Black Friday, as opposed to creating an additional opportunity for shoppers to hit the stores,” Field said about that strategy. Nick Note giving the store away is not going to save the Malls or old style retailer. Their is just not enough money to go around. Its all a matter who wants to sell it fr less and lose the most money

Market is ‘clearly near to a top,’ says longtime bull Jeremy Siegel

Closing Bell Exchange: Next year will be a lot tougher for the market
Closing Bell Exchange: Next year will be a lot tougher for the market
Next year will likely bring lower returns and perhaps a “pause” for the stock market, longtime bull Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Monday.
In fact, he believes the market is “clearly near to a top.”
“We have one more push and I think it’s connected with the corporate tax reform,” the Wharton School finance professor said in an interview with “Closing Bell.” “Clearly now at these valuations we’re not going to get the double-digit returns that certainly we’ve gotten over the last six or seven years, on average,” he said. Siegel expects returns under 10 percent. Siegel is known for his bullish predictions. In July 2015, he said the Dow Jones industrial average could hit 20,000 by year-end. In November of that year he pushed his timeline back to 2016. The Dow broke the mark on Jan. 25, 2017. In February, he told CNBC that Dow 22,000 was “on the horizon.” The blue chip index hit that level in August. His latest call is for Dow 24,000 by the end of 2017, but has said it is predicated on the passage of tax reform.  Nick Bit: Another long time wall Street bull who has the word sell erased form his brain is warning about a “PAUSE with LOWER RETURNS” That’s about as close as these guys can get… but read between the lines and get the hell out and SELL the shit out of the market!!!!

Household Debt Rises to New Record of $13 Trillion

A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last week found that US household debt hit another record high in the 3Q of almost $13 trillion. The largest increases came in student loans, auto debt and credit cards. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported last week that household debt totaled almost $13 trillion in the 3Q ended September 30, an increase of 0.9% from the previous quarter.The 3Q reading was $280 billion above the previous record peak back in the 3Q of 2008. Just since 2013, household debt has climbed more than 16%.

Household Debt

Mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, increased again during the 3Q. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports on September 30 stood at $8.74 trillion, an increase of $52 billion from the second quarter of 2017. Credit card debt increased by $24 billion to a total of $808 billion in the 3Q, while student loan debt increased by $13 billion and stood at $1.36 trillion as of the end of September. The Fed also reported that, as of September, 4.9% of outstanding household debt was in some stage of delinquency. More specifically, of the $630 billion of debt that is delinquent, $408 billion is seriously delinquent (90 days late or longer), the Fed said. Consumers’ transition into serious delinquency for credit cards has been increasing at a notable rate for one year, according to the Fed. The serious delinquency rate increased from 4.4% in the 2Q to 4.6% in the 3Q. $435 billion worth of auto loans outstanding that were made to consumers with a credit score below 660. Another area for concern, according to the New York Fed, is rising auto loan delinquencies to “sub-prime”borrowers – primarily those with lower credit scores. The New York Fed estimated that 23 million consumers hold subprime auto loans, which are based on a credit score below 620. Nick Note: We are about to see the greatest debt wipeout in history. From Individuals, to corporations and finally to the whore investment banks.

Japan Sep Leading Index Falls More Than Estimated

Japan’s leading index decreased more than initially estimated in September, latest figures from the Cabinet Office showed Monday. The leading index, which measures the future economic activity, fell to 106.4 in September from 107.2 in August. The reading for September was revised down from 106.6. The coincident index that reflects the current economic activity dropped to 116.2 in September from 117.7 in the previous month. The flash reading for September was 115.8. Nick Note: Another sign of the growing weakness in  a manufacturing power house,

Cash Remains Preferred Payment Option In Eurozone: ECB Study

Euro zone consumers still prefer cash to other options for paying for their purchases, though numerous survey have suggested that a cashless society is imminent, results of a study by the European Central Bank showed Friday.

Nearly 79 percent of all transactions at the point-of-sale terminals in the euro area were carried out using cash, which amounts to 54 percent of the total value of all payments, the ECB study conducted in 2016 revealed.

Almost 19 percent of the transactions were made with cards and 2 percent with other payment instruments. That said, there were substantial differences between euro area countries. The southern euro area countries, as well as, Germany, Austria and Slovenia, led the group where cash remained the predominant payment option and 80 percent or more of POS transactions conducted with cash in these regions. The Netherlands, Estonia and Finland were the leaders in using payment options other than cash. The share of cash payments in the number of transactions ranged between 45 percent and 54 percent.

In value terms, the share of cash was highest in Greece, Cyprus and Malta, above 70 percent, while it was lowest in the Benelux countries, Estonia, France and Finland, at or less than 33 percent.

The study also showed that men tend to use cash more often than women and that consumers aged 40 and over use more cash than younger groups. Cash usage appeared to be relatively homogeneous across different levels of education. Nick Bit: Cash is here to stay. Bottom line the world over.. So Stuff stuff stuff The First National Bank of YOUR Mattress Please note countries that have has banking wipe outs people use more cash… See they figured it out… You should to!!!!!

U.S. Durable Goods Orders DROP 1.2% In October

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Reflecting a sharp pullback in orders for transportation equipment, the Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing an unexpected drop in new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the month of October. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders tumbled by 1.2 percent in October.

The decrease surprised economists, who had expected orders to edge up by 0.3 percent compared to the 2.0 percent increase that had been reported for the previous month. Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts showed a substantial decrease, plunging by 18.6 percent in October after soaring by 33.9 percent in September. Excluding the drop in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.4 percent in October after jumping by 1.1 percent in September. Ex-transportation orders had been expected to climb by 0.5 percent.

The Commerce Department said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, an indicator of business spending, fell by 0.5 percent in October.​ 

Fed officials fear financial market ‘imbalances’ and ‘sharp reversal’ in prices

Minutes from the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicate the Fed is worried about rising financial markets.
Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Minutes from the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicate members when it came to evaluating market conditions, the talk took a more cautious tone.Stocks have been on a tear throughout 2017, setting a series of record highs and adding trillions in value. That’s come both on the heels of stronger corporate earnings and hopes that the tax reform plan, which would take the corporate rate from 35 percent to 20 percent, becomes a reality. Some members feared what would happen if the market suddenly took a hit. “In light of elevated asset valuations and low financial market volatility, several participants expressed concerns about a potential buildup of financial imbalances,” the minutes said. “They worried that a sharp reversal in asset prices could have damaging effects on the economy.”

Wall Street also has been at odds about the market, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch warning of a market top coming in 2018.

U.S. recession signal is ringing alarm bells

A historic indicater tht has never been wrong indicates  a recession is coming is flashing red. The flattening of the yield curve  occurs right before a recession. The last time the yield curve was this flat was 10 years ago, shortly before the onset of the Great Recession. The yield curve is  the difference in interest rates on long-term and short term government Treasures, in this case the 10-year and 2-year notes. Want proof look at the Yield Curve chart from the  St Lois Federal Reserve below

Investment Banks  get a higher interest rate for longer-term loans because they take on more risk. They pay a lower rate for debt that matures more rapidly (short term debt) and thus is less risky. Right now the gap between the two rates is historically very narrow. Always Always Always  right before a recession, the yield curve flattens and then  inverts. That means investors get the same interest rate or less for a riskier 10-year investment as a safer 2-year investment. The 10-year yield fell to 2.34% in recent trades, compared to a 1.72% rate on the 2-year note.  The U.S. stock market has soared to record highs  because of record  low interest rates in the short end and higher rates in the long end. Playing the yield  curve is where financial companies make their money. They borrow in the short term front end of the curve and lend  years into the future on the long end where rates are normally higher. When the curve flattens their s no margin for profits… And when the curve inverts they lose money because  its more expensive for them to borrow in the short term and the long term rates are lower in a inverted yield and they lose money and stop lending…. The kiss of death! That is where investment banks go tits up in mass.  And we are are headed for just this sort of crises.   Nick Note: The yield curve is the greatest predictor of recessions and for that matter depressions i know of.

 

 

 

The stock market could set off a correction at any moment, Art Cashin warns

Art Cashin sees ‘trouble’ brewing in stock market  

Investors may want to take cover soon.

Art Cashin, UBS’ director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange, says a “split personality” is manifesting itself in the stock market, and it could hit Wall Street where it hurts at any moment.

“We’ve been setting record new highs, and often the breadth has been negative. We’ve had more declines than advances,” Cashin said

“We’re starting to get more new lows than new highs; 30 percent of the stocks in the S&P [500] are down for the year. Those are very unusual combinations with new record highs.”

The divergences aren’t the only factor creating concerns for Cashin, who’s been a fixture at the New York Stock Exchange since 1964. “I’m troubled by the market internals, and I’m very cautious about what is going in Washington,” he added. He’s citing risks surrounding the viability of the GOP tax reform being debated in Congress. If lawmakers can’t pull off passing a lower corporate tax rate, Cashin warned, stocks could “roll over” — and not in a good way.  it would be very negative,” he said. Nick Note: We are within 97 days of the greatest stock market wipeout ever. Take cover.. put on the trades i have been recommending. Prepare yourself to get fabulously wealthy

Philly Fed Index Indicates Slower Regional Manufacturing Growth In November

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Growth in Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity slowed by more than expected in the month of November, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday.

The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current manufacturing activity in the region dropped to 22.7 in November from 27.9 in October.

The bigger than expected decrease by the Philly Fed Index was partly due to a slowdown in the pace of shipments growth, as the shipments index fell to 21.7 in November from 24.4 in October. The number of employees index also slumped to 22.6 in November from 30.6 in October, indicating a slowdown in the pace of job growth.

The New York Fed released a separate report on Wednesday showing growth in New York manufacturing activity slowed by more than anticipated in the month of November.

 

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index dropped to 19.4 in November from 30.2 in October. Economists had expected the index to fall to 26.0.

Nick Note: Their is a major slow down coming. These little followed indexes are a great forward looking indicators. They are looking really ugly!

NY Fed: US Household Debt Continues Steady Rise

Image: NY Fed: US Household Debt Continues Steady Rise

Household debt totaled a record-$12.96 trillion last quarter, breaking the record set in the previous three months, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Tuesday.The debt rose $116 billion in the third quarter or 0.9 percent from the spring, $280 billion above the previous 2008 third quarter high, and 16.2 percent above the 2013 second quarter high.  Balances rose on mortgages by $52 billion from the second quarter of 2017, while credit-card debt rose by 3.1 percent. Home equity line of credit balances fell by 0.9 percent while auto loan debt rose 1.9 percent. Student loan debt also rose by 1 percent.

 Delinquency rates among auto finance lenders are considerably higher and rising, especially for subprime borrowers, in part reflecting differences in underwriting standards

The amount of delinquent debt — debt with payments more than 90 days late — rose slightly to 4.9 percent. Mortgages make up more than two-thirds of overall household debt. The New York Fed’s quarterly report is based on data from the credit-ratings firm Equifax. Nick Note: The debt house of cards is crumbling……. again. This is another warning sign, the masses are deeply in debt and are starting to renege on their debt. More and more people every single day are not able to tote the note. The end is near… Another debt collapse is coming.

An alarming number of shoppers are still paying off debt from last Christmas

As the holiday season approaches, the pressure to spend spikes. This year, gift-buying Americans plan to spend $660 on average.

That’s according to new data from NerdWallet’s 2017 Consumer Holiday Shopping Report, which analyzed spending and behavior trends of more than 2,000 Americans aged 18 and over. And holiday-induced debt is a growing problem. Although survey respondents say they plan to spend roughly the same amount as they spent last year, 24 percent of shoppers say they overspent in 2016, while 27 percent admit to not making a budget at all.During the 2016 season, boomers proved most likely to take on debt to finance their purchases, with 63 percent of respondents copping to the habit. Other generations took on debt as well, including 58 percent of Gen-Xers and 40 percent of millennials.

What’s alarming about this pattern is that many Americans are still carrying last year’s debt as they head into yet another holiday season.

Millennials are the worst culprits here: 24 percent still haven’t paid off credit card debt incurred during the 2016 shopping season, while 16 percent of Gen-Xers haven’t and only 8 percent of boomers haven’t. Nick Note: Consumer debt in all categorizes are at all time record highs. The last time debt approached these levels was right before the 2007 wipe out. Here we go again!

 

Weakness Remains Visible On Wall Street – The END is Near

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Pictured is the biggest money black hole in the world

After moving lower early in the session, stocks continue to see modest weakness in mid-day trading on Friday. Selling pressure has remained relatively subdued, however, limiting the downside for the major averages. Currently, the major averages remain in negative territory but off their worst levels of the day.  The weakness on Wall Street may reflect lingering uncertainty about the outlook for Republican lawmakers’ tax reform plans.

Trucking stocks continue to see significant weakness in mid-day trading, resulting in a 2 percent slump by the Dow Jones Trucking Index. With the drop, the index has fallen to its lowest intraday level in almost a month. Railroad and utilities stocks have also moved to the downside. Nick Note: Fridays lower close after Thursday down day is a ominous warning sign. Also the Transports getting hammered are a Dow Theory warning sign. Next weeks trading action will be very important.

U.S. junk bond funds post fourth-biggest week of outflows ever: Lipper

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. fund investors walloped high-yield funds with their biggest week of withdrawals since March, Lipper data showed on Thursday.

The junk bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted $4.4 billion in net withdrawals during the week ended Nov. 15, the fourth-largest weekly outflow on record dating back to 1992.

Several concerns weighed on high-yield markets during the week, but the extensive withdrawals signal that investor sentiment after a strong year of performance may have been chief among them. Three high-yield bond deals have also been pulled from the market in the space of a week in the face of investor push-back. Nick Note: YES its definitely to head for the hills. Junk bonds are about to have their biggest wipeout ever. Truth is that GE and Venezuela are just the tremor before the world o junk bonds are shaken to their very core.

Trump to ask for another $45 billion in disaster aide: report

© Getty

The White House is set to request $45 billion in additional aid from Congress for the hurricane-stricken areas of Puerto Rico, Texas and Florida and other disaster-stricken areas, according to Reuters. The aid is significantly less than what some officials from affected areas have said is needed.  Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló on Monday asked for $94.4 billion from Congress for rebuilding efforts on the island, which was devastated by Hurricane Maria in October. Texas requested $61 billion in federal aid this month to assist in rebuilding efforts in the southeastern portions of the state. The report comes after Congress gave the green light last month to send $36.5 billion to areas that were affected by the hurricanes. The bill was aimed at providing $36.5 billion to fund hurricane relief, a flood insurance program, as well as wildfire recovery efforts in the West. Congress said it would consider another round of funding after it went over requests from U.S. state and commonwealth governments.   As of Friday morning, the Puerto Rico government reported that more than half of the island does not have electricity. Nick Note: When was the last time Trump went to or spoke about the ongoing disasters. Bottom lie the crises lives n but Trump is on to other Photo ops. It won’t be long till the mortgage wipe out in the disaster areas is headline news. They are way way underfunding disaster relief and rebuilding.

Venezuela fails to pay on sovereign bonds, industry group says

A worker walks past a mural with a PDVSA logo at its gas station in Caracas, Venezuela.
Carlos Garcia Rawlins | Reuters A worker walks past a mural with a PDVSA logo at its gas station in Caracas, Venezuela.
A securities committee has paved the way for investors who bought insurance against a Venezuelan debt default to collect on the policies.

Venezuela’s delayed payments on its sovereign debt and bonds issued by state oil giant Petroleos de Venezuela constitutes a failure to pay “credit event,” the International Swaps and Derivatives Association determined on Thursday. The determination that a credit event had occurred, made by an ISDA committee of 15 financial firms, was unanimous. It means holders of so-called credit default swaps can cash in on the derivatives. Credit default swaps are typically purchased by bondholders who want protection in the event that the debt issuer defaults. They are also purchased by investors who believe a default will occur and want to profit from the credit event.

There is about $1.3 billion in outstanding credit default swaps for Venezuelan sovereign debt and about $250 million for PDVSA, as the state oil company is known, according to Caracas Capital.

Last month, Venezuela started skipping several interest payments in the lead-up to two critical principal payments totaling nearly $2 billion.

The 30-day grace period on the interest payments ended this week. Questions have also lingered over whether PDVSA had defaulted on $1.1 billion in principal due Nov. 2 because some bondholders did not receive their payment within three business days of the due date. Nick Note: Sound familiar more CDS (credit default swaps) going broke. Surely you remember the Lehman moment. Now its retirement accounts chock full of shit. OH don’t forget GE…. many more will son go tits up… and with YOUR money if your not careful. You have been warned. Shopping at the church basement food pantry will not be as much fun as Walmart. And the smell or urine at the salvation army “restaurant” will ruin your meal when you dine out.

Oil prices set for first weekly fall in six on oversupply worries

Getty Image

Oil prices were mixed on Friday in Europe after recent declines, but were were on track for the first weekly fall in six weeks, under pressure from surging U.S. supplies and doubts over Russian support for continuing a cut in crude output. Still, crude was on track to fall around 2-4 percent for the week on worries about growth in U.S. production and inventories, after both benchmarks touched 2015 highs last week. “Russian support for a formalized extension of production cuts at the Nov.30 OPEC meeting appears questionable, even if only to defer the decision to 1Q18,” U.S. investment bank Jefferies said. Crude markets have received general support in the past months by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which together with some non-OPEC producers including Russia has been withholding production since January in order to tighten the market and prop up prices. This has lead to an almost 40 percent rise in Brent prices since June. Nick Note: Crude oil is doomed. Us exports are ramping up faster then OPEC can cut. Besides producers like Russia and Iraq and Iran need money and they don’t care what the price is. they just will produce more and more and more. Any OPEC agreement they relies upon Russia the worlds largest exporter honoring OPEC agreements is doomed.

 

Harvard economist Feldstein sees greater chance stocks will plunge

Bloomberg Martin Feldstein, shown here in 2016, says current stock and bond prices are out of line, bringing the risk of a sharp correction.

Harvard economics professor Martin Feldstein said he sees an increased risk that stock prices will decline sharply, and push down GDP growth. Feldstein, in a Thursday speech to the libertarian Cato Institute, said the fragile financial system is the result of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive bond buying in the wake of the financial crisis. Feldstein said that former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke “was right” when he warned excessive risk-taking was a side effect of bond purchases and the extremely low interest rates they engendered.

“There is obviously now an increased chance that share prices will decline,” Feldstein said.

If the price-earnings ratio declined to its historical average, there is an implied fall of 38%, he said. This would reduce the value of household equities held directly and through mutual funds by $9.5 trillion, he said. Feldstein noted that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has rejected having financial stability be a goal of monetary policy. “Yellen emphasized that the Fed has only two goals for monetary policy—price stability and maximum employment—and that macro-prudential policies should be the responsibility of other agencies. Unfortunately, it is not clear what those agencies are,” Feldstein said. Nick Note: Feldstein is predicting a stock Market wipe out. It would be very wise on your part to listen here

Wells Fargo CFO says not worried about consumer credit

 

(Reuters) – Wells Fargo & Co’s chief financial officer said on Wednesday he is not worried that consumers are struggling to pay their debts. CFO John Shrewsberry, speaking at an industry conference, said banks have been very competitive in trying to get consumers to use their credit cards, but the easy availability of credit has not yet led to a meaningful rise in defaults.

Consumer defaults hit a multiyear high in May 2009 partly leading to the financial crisis, and have been roughly flat since May 2015, according to data from S&P/Experian.

Since consumer credit moves in cycles and some lenders have become more aggressive, analysts are worried defaults could move higher. “I don’t think banks, incidentally, are going to get the worst if auto credit goes sideways. I think that will be finance companies more likely,” he said. Nick Note: When the head of the biggest consumer bank in the world is “not worried” about consumer credit as bad loans soar means you should be worried about his bank. And for that matter all the others who are over their butt holes in soon to wipe out consumer debt,

U.S. Producer Prices Climb 0.4% In October, More Than Expected

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Producer prices in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of October, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.4 percent in October, matching the increase seen in September. The bigger than expected increase by the headline index was partly due to a 0.5 percent advance by the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand trade services jumped by 1.1 percent, while the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services climbed by 0.8 percent and prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing edged up by 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices also rose by 0.4 percent in October after a matching increase in the previous month. Core prices had been expected to rise by 0.2 percent.

House speaker: May need a temporary bill to fund government past Dec. 8

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. lawmakers may have to pass another stop-gap spending bill in order to keep the federal government operating Dec. 8 when existing money runs out, U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan told reporters on Tuesday.U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan holds his weekly news conference in the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., November 9, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque  Asked about the timing of the budget process and the measure now in place to fund government operations through early December at last year’s levels, Ryan told a news conference, “We might need a little bit more time to give the appropriators time to write their bill” for fiscal 2018 spending that would extend through next Sept. 30. Ryan said a temporary spending bill, if needed while the longer-term one is being negotiated, would extend for a short time. “We are not talking about going into next year,” he said.

Household debt rises by $116 billion as credit-card delinquencies pile up

Household debt rose 0.9% in the third quarter

The numbers: Household debt rose by $116 billion, or 0.9%, to $12.96 trillion in the third quarter, the New York Fed said Tuesday. Credit-card debt rose by 3.1% while home equity lines of credit, or HELOC, balances fell by 0.9%. There were small gains in mortgage, student and auto debt. Flows into credit-card and auto loans delinquencies rose, with 4.6% of credit card debt 90 days or more delinquent, up from 4.4% in the second quarter, and 2.4% of auto loan debt seriously delinquent, up from 2.3%. That’s still nowhere near the 9.6% of student loan debt that is delinquent, which itself is understated because about half of those loans are currently in deferment, grace periods or in forbearance.

What happened: U.S. households aren’t aggressively leveraging up, and the ones that are did so had better credit. The higher level of auto loan originations was mainly to prime borrowers, and the median credit score to individuals originating new mortgages ticked up to 760 from 754.

The big picture: Student and auto loans have grown rapidly, though not so much this quarter. Auto loans have grown for 26 straight quarters. But there are some worries as subprime auto loan performance continues to deteriorate — the delinquency rate for auto finance companies have grown by more than 2 percentage points since 2014, the New York Fed said. Another concern is the upturn in serious delinquent credit-card debt, at a time when the job market is in strong shape. Nick Note: the worst of times…. the best of times. These are the BEST of times that is coming to a quick end. Soon it will be the worst of times. This greatest debt orgy ever is over. God help the masses. they will come for their pound of flesh.. blood included.  you can’t get blood out of a turnip. That’s OK they will settle for turnip juice. GET OUT OF DEBT…. You have been warned!

U.S. growth will not reach Trump’s 3% Growth BULLSHIT SPIN

 Growth will average at most a 2.2% rate through 2020, says Philadelphia Fed survey
Getty Images President Donald Trump speaks during a cabinet meeting at the White House earlier this month.

 

Economists are raising their growth expectations for this year and next, but don’t expect 3% growth during President Trump’s first term, according to a Philadelphia Fed survey published Monday. Forecasters now expect the U.S. economy to expand at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from the previous estimate of a 2.3% rate made three months ago, the Philadelphia Fed said in its quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters.

This will bring U.S. growth up to a 2.2% annual rate for all of 2017, the forecasters said

The forecasters do not see growth getting up to 3% over the forecast horizon. They predict the economy will expand at a 2.5% rate in 2018, and then slow to 2.1% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020. Trump has often said that his policies, including the tax cut under consideration in Congress, will result in faster growth. “If we achieve sustained 3% growth, that means 12 million new jobs and $10 trillion of new economic activity. That’s some number,” Trump said in August. “I happen to be one that thinks we can go much higher than 3%t. There’s no reason we shouldn’t.” Nick Note: this is a disaster for Trumps Tax Breaks for Billionaires. They need 3% to 4% economic growth to not make his tax plan a economic disaster. So they assume economic growth will be at least a 3.5% growth rate which is impossible. The truth is the Tax Breaks for Billionaires will destroy the economy and cause the budget deficits to soar to the moon. Want proof… Well the deficit is already soaring under Trump. Projected to go to 1 trillion dollars a year. And that is before Tax Breaks for Billionaires… A disaster in the making.

 

 

Citigroup’s credit-card growth plans hit a snag

Cracks in the card business have emerged, just as CEO Michael Corbat has been shoring up the bank’s other issues

Getty Images
Citigroup is the largest card lender globally by some measures and is the second-biggest in the U.S. by balances, according to industry tracker the Nilson Report, despite the fact that it has cut hundreds of U.S. branches since the financial crisis.

One of the bright spots in Citigroup Inc.’s turnaround strategy is starting to lose a little luster. For years, the New York-based bank C, -0.19%   has steadily grown its card business, boosting loans and investing heavily despite problems elsewhere that ranged from headaches in Mexico to regulatory problems that lingered after the financial crisis. But now, some cracks in the card business have emerged, raising questions just as CEO Michael Corbat has shored up the bank’s other issues. This summer, the bank lowered its profitability potential for Citi-branded credit cards to at least a 2.15% return on assets, down from 2.25%. The seemingly narrow nugget in one part of Citigroup’s sprawling empire is getting a lot of attention, in part because credit cards have been a crucial business for a bank that has spent much of its efforts getting smaller and simpler. Among the factors pressuring the business are more activity on cards that don’t tend to generate as much lending income and consumers’ increasing demand for rewards. “It’s clear that the company has gotten off to a slower-than-expected start” on meeting card-growth goals, wrote Compass Point analyst Charles Peabody in a note. Nick Note: Banks have ALL rushed into credit cards and auto loans.. in good times they are very profitable business. BUT in bad times they are enormous money losers. We are headed fr bad times VERY bad times.

Aramco plans to spend $300 billion over 10 years in upstream oil and gas: CEO

ABU DHABI (Reuters) – Saudi Aramco plans to spend close to $300 billion over 10 years in upstream oil and gas projects, Chief Executive Amin Nasser said on Monday.Amin Nasser, President and Chief Executive Officer of Aramco arrives to the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia October 24, 2017. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed  Speaking at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, Nasser said: “This is mainly upstream, onshore, offshore and joint ventures in the kingdom and out of the kingdom.” He also said a decision would hopefully be made soon on the location for the listing of shares in the oil giant. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman said last month that Aramco’s initial public offering, part of an ambitious plan to diversify the Saudi economy beyond oil, was on track to go ahead in 2018. Nick Note: On the one hand OPEC led by the Saudi’s want to CUT crude oil production. On the other they are spending 300 billion to expand output. Here is the trick. OPEC only cuts CRUDE OIL production. So if they export REFINED (upStream) products they get around the output cuts.

Consumer sentiment falls in November

The numbers: Consumer sentiment declined in November, albeit from very strong levels. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 97.8 from 100.7 in October.

Gauges of both current and future expectations declined — but the index still was at its second-highest level since January. There was a slight rise in expectations for inflation over the next year, and growing expectations of increasing interest rates. The University of Michigan said the index was consistent with 2.7% growth in personal consumption in 2018. Nick Note: Please understand for the HA HA HA CUT CUT CUT JOBS JOBS  tax break for billionaires to work they need 3.5% economic growth.

Oil markets cautious on Middle East tensions, increased US drilling

A pump jack operates at a well site leased by Devon Energy Production Co. near Guthrie, Oklahoma.
Nick Oxford | Reuters A pump jack operates at a well site leased by Devon Energy Production Co. near Guthrie, Oklahoma.

Oil trading was cautious on early Monday in Europe amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East and after a rising rig count in the United States suggested producers there are preparing to increase output. Despite the Middle East tensions and OPEC-led supply cuts, traders were cautious in betting on further price rises, not least because of an increase in U.S. drilling for new production.

U.S. drillers added nine oil rigs in the week to Nov. 10, the biggest jump since June, bringing the total count up to 738, Baker Hughes energy services firm said on Friday.

The rig count is also much higher than a year ago when only 452 rigs were active, indicating that the U.S. oil industry is comfortable operating at current prices.

U.S. oil producers have raised output by more than 14 percent since mid-2016 to a record 9.62 million barrels per day.

This led to a slide in crude futures prices late on Friday away from over two-year highs reached early last week. Nick Note: Don’t be fooled lower in fact much lower oil prices are coming. No one can stop the made in America fracking revolution. See Radio Free Wall Street recorded live streaming TV web cast from Sunday November 12.

 

Gold drops in sudden move lower

Trading volume also picked up during the selling activity.
Gold futures for December delivery were down 0.9 percent at $1,275.60 per ounce as of 2:22 p.m. in New York after stabilizing following the sudden decline. It was not immediately clear what caused the drop. Gold was set for a weekly gain as stocks fell and uncertainty about the timing of the U.S. tax reform plan increased, pushing investors into the arms of the safe-haven trade. Nick Note: Gold is doomed. Its driven by heave promotions to retail investors who are choking on the stuff.

UPS is hoping to convert most of its New York City fleet from diesel to electric

UPS is partnering with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to develop new technology to switch its diesel-fueled delivery vehicles to over to electric power.

The NYSERDA will provide $500,000 to help develop the technology, with the hope that the company will have a production version ready for spring 2018, and that by 2022, they will have switched over up to 1,500 trucks, or 66 percent of the fleet operating in the city. Unique Electric Solutions is the company that developed the technology behind the conversions, which features a “225kW Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) with a high voltage back bone optimized for the duty cycle of UPS delivery trucks.” The delivery company hopes that by 2020, one in four of its vehicles will be more electric, hybrid, or alternate-fuel vehicles. The company also says that it presently uses “more than 770 electric or hybrid electric vehicles,” as well as more than 8,500 alternative fuel and advanced technology vehicles worldwide.” It recently partnered with Daimler to use three of its eCanter short-range electric trucks. Converting its present-diesel vehicles will undoubtably help get it closer to that goal. Nick Note: Electric ain’t worth a dam if your traveling distances.. Elon its the battery! BUT BUT for urban use where distances are short and charging stations cold be close by this might just work. We are watching closely. By the way Urban English Milk deliver vehicles where battery powered for decades. I know i bough one of the delivery skiffs to play with. Here is a picture of one like it. We converted it into a people carries and called it the Le Limousine.

Junk Bonds Flashing Their Warning…. Stocks Next!

Financial Markets Are Still Blowing Off the Fed

by Wolf Richter

There has been a lot of hand-wringing about junk bonds this week, that they have gotten clobbered, that losses have been taken, that this is a predictor of where stocks are headed, etc., etc., because after a steamy rally in junk-bond prices from the February 2016 low, there has now been a sell-off. When bond prices fall, bond yields rise by definition. And the average yield of BB-rated junk bonds – the upper end of the junk-bond spectrum – did this:

No one likes to lose money, and junk bonds did lose money this week, an astounding event, after all the easy money that had been made since early February 2016. Nick Note: Their is no cash on the street. EVERYBODY is ALL IN. This is what you expect to see at market peeks. The bond market is reflecting the lack of liquidity. Within 100 days this party is gong to come to a bitter end.

WSJ: Kushner Chided Time Warner to Fire 20% of CNN Staff

Image: WSJ: Kushner Chided Time Warner to Fire 20% of CNN Staff
(Thomas Peter/Getty Images) By Eric Mack

Amid a Department of Justice halt of a proposed AT&T and Time Warner merger — and speculation White House tensions with CNN are at the root of the snag — The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that senior adviser Jared Kushner told a top Time Warner executive CNN should fire 20 percent of its staff because of its presidential election miscalculations.Earlier this year, “Mr. Kushner told the executive, Gary Ginsberg, that CNN should fire 20 percent of its staff because they were so wrong in their analysis of the election and how it would turn out, people familiar with the matter say,” WSJ’s Amol Sharma wrote. “A White House official said Mr. Kushner didn’t intend the comment to be taken seriously, and was simply trying to make a point. Inside Time Warner, it wasn’t taken lightly.” According to the report, Ginsberg rejected Kushner’s suggestion, as “there was no scenario under which Time Warner would do that, one of the people familiar with the matter said.“AT&T is seeking federal approval to purchase Time Warner, CNN’s parent company, but the DOJ reportedly might be requesting Time Warner to sell off its Turner Broadcasting division in order for the $85.4 billion merger to be approved under antitrust review. Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law married to the president’s daughter Ivanka Trump, is a senior adviser for the White House. Kushner was also instrumental in analytics in measuring President Trump’s attack during the campaign and mapping the Electoral College. Nick Note: what i need you to take from the story is the fact that the President is taking his revenge on media he does not like. This is very dangerous. Love CNN hate them… Do you really want the president interfering in their business and merger because he wants to silence them. Donald Trump with his vindictive streak is a very dangerous president

Stock-market investors should be worried about the junk-bond market

 Watch the spread between junk bonds and Treasurys

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — If you’re the worrying investor type — and there appear to be fewer and fewer of us these days — then look no further than the shrinking spread between the yields on junk bonds and comparable Treasurys. This spread, sometimes referred to as the high-yield (or junk) spread, is currently in the vicinity of 3.5 percentage points. That means that junk-bond investors on average are requiring that they be paid a yield of just 3.5 percentage points more than if they had instead invested in Treasurys of the same maturities. That’s not much compensation for the considerably higher risk associated with junk bonds. The bonds are called “junk” for reason, after all; it’s not clear that their issuers will survive unless all the economic stars are in alignment. An economic downturn would be fatal to many of them, and in that event junk bond investors wouldn’t just forfeit their interest payments — they’d lose principal as well. The average high-yield spread over the last 20 years has been 5.7 percentage points. And it often spells economic trouble when the spread drops to levels in the vicinity of where it stands today. The record low for the spread  came in the summer of 2007. In retrospect, of course, that seems incredible, since the 2008 financial crisis was just around the corner. In the dark days of that crisis, the high-yield spread skyrocketed to 20 percentage points. Nick Note: Junk bonds which have been crammed into retirement fund. Why fill them chock full of Shit? Simple to make the returns look good. They  are about to wipe out in ass. This SHIT will never be paid back. Especial in the massive Junk bond issuance in commercial real estate.

 

Stock Market Party IN Trouble-Could the END be Near?

U.S. tax cut worries derail hopes of longest winning run in 14 years

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Broad equity market declines in Asia and Europe on Thursday, combined with growing concerns that the Republican-led U.S. corporate tax cut may not pass this year, spoiled the longest winning streak for MSCI’s global stock index since 2003. Wall Street stocks extended losses, pushing down the benchmark S&P 500 Index as much as 1 percent, after Republican Senator Bill Cassidy, a member of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, said the Senate tax proposal will delay a corporate tax cut by one year to 2019. Major stock indexes came off their session lows after Senator John Cornyn said Senate Republicans were looking to avoid such a delay, yet remained in the red. “The stock market has run out of a little momentum,” said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. “We are waiting for some news from the Republicans on the (U.S.) tax plans, there is a bond market that has stalled and we’ve got rather soggy-looking emerging markets … We probably need to get U.S. Treasury yields higher to get things going again.” But as a measure of relative calm amid the current bull market and a reflection of the low volatility environment that has dominated all year, none of the most recent 10 daily gains has exceeded half a percent and more than half of them were less than 0.1 percent. Nick Note: A slight tremor. BUT it shows you how vulnerable this bubble market really is. Within 100 trading days their will be tears on the NYSE

 

Japan Core Machine Orders Tumble 8.1% In September

The value of core machine orders in Japan plunged a seasonally adjusted 8.1 percent on month in September, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday – standing at 1.027 trillion yen. On a yearly basis, core machine orders tumbled 3.5 percent – again missing expectations for a gain of 2.0 percent following the 4.4 percent increase in the previous month.

The total value of machine orders, which includes volatile ones for ships and electric power companies, skidded 10.2 percent on month

Manufacturing orders fell 5.1 percent on month. While non-manufacturing orders tumbled 11.1 percent on month and 13.3 percent on year to 432.9 billion yen. Government orders plummeted 30.9 percent on month and 9.4 percent on year to 218.2 billion yen. Orders from overseas shed 9.8 percent on month . Orders from agencies eased 4.9 percent on month and 2.2 percent on year to 119.8 billion yen. For the fourth quarter of 2017, core machine orders are forecast to have fallen 3.5 percent on quarter and 1.8 percent on year. Nick Note: Another sign of the spreading Global slow down.

 

New Saudi Crown Prince Will Collapse Oil Market When He Becomes KING

Saudi shakeup is ‘terribly detrimental’ to oil prices, warns Dennis Gartman
Here's what Dennis Gartman finds ‘fascinating’ about oil’s reaction to the Saudi shakeup
Here’s what Dennis Gartman finds ‘fascinating’ about oil’s reaction to the Saudi shakeup

The political shakeup in Saudi Arabia may change the direction of oil prices, but not in the way most investors think. Dennis Gartman, who’s often referred to as the commodities king, sees a monumental shift happening in oil markets — one that could bring West Texas Intermediate crude oil back to historically low levels. “You may get another dollar or 2 upfront in the front months just because of the confusion. But in the long run, this is terribly detrimental to crude oil prices,” the editor of the Gartman Letter said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” Nick Note: Their is no way OPEC can take enough oil off the market to keep oil prices higher. $10.00 (ten) here we come. And HELL yes we have a very special trade for that.

Americans Carrying The MOST Debt Ever And They Are Getting Behind

U.S. Consumer Debt Soars In  September-People Are In Trouble

Reflecting increases in both revolving and non-revolving credit, the Federal Reserve released a report on Tuesday showing U.S. consumer credit jumped by more than expected in the month of September. The report said consumer credit surged up by $20.8 billion in September after climbing by $13.1 billion in August. Economists had expected consumer credit to rise by $18.0 billion. Revolving credit, which largely reflects credit card debt, rose by $6.3 billion in September after increasing by $5.6 billion in August. The Fed said non-revolving credit such as student loans and car loans spiked by $14.4 billion in September after climbing by $7.7 billion in August. Consumer credit increased by an annual rate of 6.6 percent in September, as revolving credit jumped by 7.7 percent and non-revolving credit surged up by 6.3 percent. Nick Note: people are DEEP in Debt. In fact they are drowning. Debt is increasing by over Twice the GDP. This is a ratio I watch carefully. This is what happened right before the 2007 wipe out. It is a ominous warning sign that the economy is headed of a cliff. You have been warned. You know how this movie goes. Prepare yourself.

The End IS Neigh-Real Estate Crash IS upon US

Commercial real estate prices soared to incredible highs since the LAST financial crises. The Fed is really worried that the next crash (soon come) will wipe out some of Americas largest financial institutions, here is why. US financial institutions  hold nearly $4 trillion of commercial real estate loans on grossly overvalued properties. But the boom  is over. The Green Street Property Price Index  had soared over 100% from May 2009 to the to late last year. But all that has changed party over. The CPPI has dropped 1.1% in October from September. In terms of points, the 1.4-point decline was the largest monthly decline since March 2009. The index is now below where it had been in June 2016:

US financial institutions hold nearly $4 trillion of CRE loans, according to Boston Fed governor Eric Rosengren earlier this year. And they are shitting bricks. Nick Note: As you know we have warned about the real estate bubble. Especially Retail and Commercial properties. They have achieved a bubble market peek and have started what will turn into a death plunge, As you know we have a trade for that.

Oil Prices Rally on Saudi Purge – Its a Sell

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices hit their highest since July 2015 on Monday as Saudi Arabia’s crown prince cemented his power over the weekend through an anti-corruption crackdown, while markets continued to tighten. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman tightened his grip with the arrest of royals, ministers and investors including prominent billionaire Alwaleed bin Talal and the powerful head of the National Guard, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that while there is “satisfaction” with a production-cutting deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by Russia, the “job is not done yet”.

OPEC is expected to extend a cut of around 1.8 million barrels per day throughout the whole of 2018. Speculators have also increased to a record high their bets on gains in the price of Brent. ICE commitment-of-traders data showed money managers had increased their net long holdings of Brent crude futures and options by 23,500 contracts to 530,237. [O/ICE] Money managers raised their net long commitments on WTI by 63,072 contracts to 343,705 over the same period, a more than six-month high. Nick Note: the idiot money is piling in on the BUY side. And i gotta sell!

Warning Yeild Curve is Flatting: Warning a Recession IS Comming

The bond market is sending the Federal Reserve a warning just as clueless Jerome Powell prepares to take over as chairman. In the Treasury market the spread between long-end bond yields and short-term yields have dramatically narrowed — resulting in a curve flattening. That move has made the curve the flattest it’s been since 2007. RIGHT BEFORE THE LAST WIPE OUT! The fact that the curve is compressing just as President Donald Trump nominated Powell to replace Fed chair Janet Yellen has also added fuel to both sides of the debate about whether the Fed can stick to its forecast of three interest rate hikes next year. The Yellen Fed is expected to raise interest rates in December, and the bottom line issue is whether inflation will improve enough for the Fed to continue raising rates.

A flattening yield curve can be the precursor to an inverted curve, where the short end, or in this case 2-year yield, rises above the long end, or the 10-year yield. An inverted curve is the real sign of trouble and historically has signaled recession.

Nick Note: The wooden heads at Treasury and the FED still don’t get it. The economy is in a deflation and entering what will be called the Trump Depression. The Treasury market is full of smart people. A hell of a lot smarter then Trump and his merry bunch OF market manipulators like Goldman Sacks. US Treasuries will soar in value. Especially our Zero coupon Bond!!

Bitcoin Bubble… Canned Fish Anyone?

Vyacheslav Prokofyev | TASS | Getty Image

Investors rushed to open new accounts for buying and selling bitcoin after news that the world’s largest futures exchange plans to launch futures for the digital currency this year. About 100,000 new users joined Coinbase a day after the Tuesday announcement, according to public data compiled by Alistair Milne, co-founder and chief investment officer of Altana Digital Currency Fund. Coinbase is the largest bitcoin exchange in the U.S. and one of the most popular ways to buy and sell digital currencies bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin. The company now has 11.9 million users, according to its website.

Source: Alistair Milne, Coinbas

In another step toward bitcoin’s development as a more established asset class, CME announced Tuesday that it plans to launch bitcoin futures by the end of the year. Once the futures launch, many large investors restricted from directly purchasing bitcoin will be able to buy into the digital currency trend. Bitcoin surged to records after the CME news and hit an all-time high of $7,454.04 on Friday, according to CoinDesk.

Nick Note: Bitcoin is a idea whose time has not come. Their are many many hurdles before it becomes a legitimate currency. Right now its a feeding frenzy and a great SHORT

Dennis Gartman warns a recession is coming and Trump’s Fed pick will get blamed

Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter founder.

 

The economy will soon fall into a recession, Dennis Gartman, the Gartman Letter founder, told CNBC on Thursday. President Donald Trump nominated Jerome Powell to run the Federal Reserve once current Chair Janet Yellen’s term expires, but Gartman told CNBC’s “Power Lunch” that if it were him, he would be “hesitant” to accept this position. “I think that there’s likely to be a recession in the not-too-distant future and weaker stock prices over some time in the course of the next several years. And poor Mr. Powell will be holding the ball at that time and be given the blame for it when he shouldn’t be,” he said. He continued: “I think you’re likely to see the overnight Fed’s funds rate 100 to 150 basis points higher by the end of next year, rather than by a mere 75-100 basis points. I fear that will take the yield curve to an inversion. That’s my greatest fear, and I think that that’s going to be deleterious to share prices over time.”

U.S. Created 261,000 Jobs in October, 100.000 less then Expected

Economists had expected 325,000, forecasting that the economy would bounce back from a disappointing September. Last month, hurricane effects dragged down job creation and the economy created just 18,000 jobs. It appears that the rebound was weaker than many economists expected. Previous months were revised up. September was initially reported as a loss of 33,000. Thirty-nine thousand jobs were added to the August total. Wage growth was weak, with hourly earnings. Bars and restaurant jobs rose sharply, adding 50,000. Professional services added 50,000 jobs. Manufacturing added 24,000 jobs and construction was unchanged at around 11,000 jobs.

The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, fell to 62.7 percent.

Average hourly earnings slipped, leaving them unchanged in percentage terms, in part because of the return of the lower-paying industry workers. That lowered the year-on-year increase to 2.4 percent, which was the smallest since February 2016. A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, dropped to 7.9 percent last month, the lowest level since December 2006, from 8.3 percent in September. Nick Note: What a disaster. 100,000 Jobs were created in French Fry shaker, Check out cashier and toilet bowl cleaners. average work week was 34 hours…… Part time. To give you a perspective we use to see people working a 47 hour work week. U6 the REAL unemployment rate whet up from 7.6 a year ago to 7.9 year over year. Remember October gets a big seasonal adjustment benefit. Work force participation rate shows almost 40% of the eligible worker pool is not working. Out of the work force and out of the data pool. Thats what makes the Unemployment rate so low  to a joke 4.1. i guess its easy to fool a fool!

Banks get OFF the hook. No more class acton law suits

Trump kills class-action rule against banks

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump signed a Congressional resolution on Wednesday that lets banks block customers from filing class action lawsuits.The White House confirmed Trump signed the resolution, which kills a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) rule released in July, despite heavy lobbying for a veto by the president.  Regulation critics, who say federal bureaucracy suffocates economic growth, now hope Republicans will use their control of both Congress and the White House to swiftly undo more financial rules. The CFPB rule barred banks, credit card issuers and other financial companies from requiring customers to sign away their rights to join group lawsuits and agree to take potential disputes to closed-door arbitration as a condition of opening accounts. Wells Fargo & Co customers caught up in last year’s phony accounts scandal have had difficulty suing the bank because they are bound by clauses in contracts they signed for legitimate accounts. Nick Bit: This is a license for the bankers to screw you raw. And in their kangaroo courts (arbitration) you will get a cup of coffee and a kick in the ass.

Residential construction spending down second straight quarter.

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. construction spending increased 0.3 percent in September as the biggest advance in government building activity in four months offset weakness in other areas. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the September gain followed a tiny 0.1 percent rise in August and declines in June and July. Despite a slump in homebuilding this year, economists remain optimistic that the low level of unemployment will soon spark a rebound in sales and construction. The overall economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, even though residential construction was down for the second straight quarter.

All of the strength in Wednesday’s report came from a 2.6 percent increase in government construction with state and local activity up 2.5 percent and federal spending up 3.4 percent.

Residential housing showed no increase, while non-residential construction dropped 0.8 percent, its fourth straight monthly decline.

In the non-residential area, office construction was down 1.1 percent and the category that includes shopping centers was down 1 percent. Nick  Note: Read it and weep construction spending on residential and commercial still plunging.. Government construction spending up… go figure.

No fear here: Stock market investors with $1 million have reached a bullish peak

By one closely watched measure of valuation, Alan Greenspan’s irrational exuberance warning should be keeping investors near the sell button. But as the Dow Jones Industrial Average passes the 23,500 mark, there is no fear among investors with a million dollars or more in the market. New survey results show they are as confident in the U.S. economy and stocks as they have been at any point this year, with 74 percent of million-dollar market accounts bullish on the fourth quarter, up from 61 percent who were bullish in the prior quarter. Even as some readings show a wide gap between the bulls and bears

the biggest gap between market optimists and pessimists since Black Monday —

the bullish mood is most pronounced among older million-dollar investors, who have been around for more than a few ups and downs in Dows and portfolio values. Those 55 or older are the significantly more bullish than younger investors. “Fundamentals matter again and are becoming front and center for the economy and equities,” said Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E-Trade Financial. Nick Note: Hear me well. The biggest ugliest most costly stock market wipeout EVER is right around the corner.

Fiat Chrysler, GM report sales drops while Ford gains

Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Ford is posting a big sales jump for October but Fiat Chrysler and General Motors are reporting declines. The drop by two of the Detroit Three backs analyst predictions that September’s big gain in U.S. auto sales would fizzle in October. They believe sales would continue to slow nationwide and fewer people than expected would replace hurricane-damaged vehicles in Texas and Florida.

Fiat Chrysler said Wednesday that sales fell 13 percent for the month, while GM’s dropped 2 percent. Ford reported a 6 percent gain that included big increases in F-Series pickups and sales to fleet buyers.

 Industry analysts believe that when all automakers have released their final numbers by Wednesday afternoon, they will show that October sales fell between 2 percent and about 4 percent.

China’s manufacturing activity was worse than expected in October

A worker cutting fake 'branches' into pieces at a artificial Christmas tree factory in Yiwu city, located in the Zhejiang province of China.
Johannes Eisele | AFP A worker cutting fake ‘branches’ into pieces at a artificial Christmas tree factory in Yiwu city, located in the Zhejiang province of China.

China reported Tuesday that its official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for the month of October came in at 51.6 — missing expectations. Both production and demand fell in October due to week-long public holidays and a slowdown in industries that were cutting excess capacity and pollution, the bureau added in a separate statement. China’s manufacturing sector has been posting solid growth thanks to domestic infrastructure spending and a recovery in exports. That has mitigated some concerns about slowing growth and high debt levels that could derail the world’s second-largest economy. Nick Note: Now that the “peoples congress” is out of the way Chinese numbers will deteriorate. China’s out of control debt load should worry everyone on the plante

 

Gasoline prices see ‘unseasonable’ weekly rise

Getty Images

Average retail prices for gasoline in the U.S. marked their first weekly increase in almost two months. The national average gasoline price climbed to $2.455 a gallon early Monday, up 0.6 cent from a week earlier, according to GasBuddy. That breaks a six-week streak of declines. Gas-price tracker GasBuddy said the “unseasonable” rise was due to soaring gasoline prices in the Great Lakes and surrounding areas as “refinery maintenance was pushed back and consolidated, leading to less production” and a two-year low for inventories in that region.

At the same time, oil prices have rebounded because of geopolitical tensions and declining inventories, leading gasoline prices in some parts of the country to move higher, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. West Texas Intermediate crude prices CLZ7, +0.02%  rose about 4% last week to their highest levels in roughly eight months. Seasonal refinery maintenance also continues, so gasoline stockpiles may see a “mixed bag of increases and decreases in the weeks ahead until the conclusion of such maintenance,” said DeHaan. The Energy Information Administration reported that gasoline supplies for the week ended Oct. 20 fell 5.5 million barrels to stand about 4% lower than year ago.

GasBuddy

Nick Note: this is purely refiners gouging retail buyers. The rise came as Hurricanes cut production of gasoline. And greedy Refiners want to keep the bonanza going as long as possible. This will end in both a crash in gasoline and crude oil prices….. We have a trade for that!

Americans have cut their savings to a 10-year low

Getty Americans are saving the least amount of money since 2007, according to one government measure.

The amount of money Americans save fell in September to a 10-year low, but it’s not because they are doing so badly they have to break their piggy banks.

Commerce Department The savings rate has fallen steadily.

The U.S. savings rate tumbled to 3.1% in September from 3.7% and touched the lowest level since December 2007, the Commerce Department said Monday. The savings rate has fallen steadily since 2015, when it was twice as high. Nick Note: people deeply in debt going broke don’t have the luxury of saving money

 

FULL TEXT: Paul Manafort indictment

Paul Manafort, President Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman, has been indicted Monday as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Another campaign official, Rick Gates, was also indicted by the federal grand jury. They are facing 12 counts, including conspiracy to launder money, conspiracy against the United States, being an unregistered agent of a foreign principal, false and misleading FARA statements and other charges. Manaford Indictment click here to read

Paul Manafort, Who Once Ran Trump Campaign, Indicted

Paul Manafort, President Trump’s campaign chairman, at the Republican National Convention in July. Credit Sam Hodgson for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — Paul Manafort and his former business associate Rick Gates were told to surrender to federal authorities Monday morning, the first charges in a special counsel investigation, according to a person involved in the case. The charges against Mr. Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign chairman, and Mr. Gates, a business associate of Mr. Manafort, were not immediately clear but represent a significant escalation in a special counsel investigation that has cast a shadow over the president’s first year in office. Mr. Gates is a longtime protégé and junior partner of Mr. Manafort. His name appears on documents linked to companies that Mr. Manafort’s firm set up in Cyprus to receive payments from politicians and business people in Eastern Europe, records reviewed by The New York Times show. Mr. Manafort had been under investigation for violations of federal tax law, money laundering and whether he appropriately disclosed his foreign activities. Many of these events occurred while he was Trumps campaign manager. Nick Note:  This is the day that the end of Donald Trumps presidency has begun. Please note Illegal money was used to buy a palace in Trump tower. And to provide Russian “help” through Manafort and Flynn that got Trump elected.

Record Surge in Riskiest Loans Fattens Wall Street Banks and will wipe YOU out!

The volume of leveraged loans – the riskiest loans Wall Street banks provide – has surged 38% year-over-year and has already beaten the full-year record set in 2013, according to Dealogic. Total of leveraged loans outstanding has reached $1.25 trillion.

Nine of the 10 largest banks in the leveraged-loan business have already surpassed their respective 2016 full-year totals, according to Bloomberg data, cited by the Financial Times, including Bank of America (about $120 billion in leveraged loans so far this year); JP Morgan (about $110 billion), Goldman Sachs ($79 billion); and Barclays ($72 billion). Of the top ten, only Wells Fargo ($69 billion) is still lagging behind last year. The fees are also record-breaking: $8.3 billion so far this year, just 6% below the full-year total of 2016. The borrowers are junk-rated over-indebted companies. Leveraged loans are too risky for banks to keep on their balance sheet. So banks structure these loans, arrange them, and sell the structured products to loan mutual funds or ETFs so that they can be moved into retirement portfolios, or they repackage them into Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO) to sell them to institutional investors, such as mutual-fund companies. Leverage loans are bought and sold like securities. But the SEC, which regulates securities, considers them loans and doesn’t regulate them. No one regulates them. Nick Note: Banks, Brokers, Insurance companies and Funds of all kinds are chock full of this shit. This debt is the next financial crisis……Which will bring down the finical system. you will have no money unless it is in The First National Bank of YOUR mattress… and/or in US government treasuries held in YOUR name at http://treasurydirect.gov

 

Trump promises to release all JFK files

US releases some classified JFK documents 03:15

(CNN)President Donald Trump said Friday night on Twitter that he would release all documents related to President John F. Kennedy’s assassination, a pledge that comes despite national security agencies’ last-minute requests to keep some of the records secret. The President said he came to the decision after consulting with his chief of staff, John Kelly, as well as the CIA and other agencies, and would release all files “other than the names and addresses of any mentioned person who is still living.”

“I am doing this for reasons of full disclosure, transparency and in order to put any and all conspiracy theories to rest,” the President tweeted.

S&P 500 and the Nasdaq close out week at all-time highs as tech rallies

U.S. major stock indexes ended higher on Friday after stronger-than-expected earnings from the tech sector buoyed the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to all-time highs this week. Amazon.com Inc. SPX, +0.81% , Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +0.16% , Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, +0.11% and Intel Corp. INTL, +0.77% posted solid third-quarter earnings. That helped the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index to notch its largest single-day gain since Nov. 7 2016. The S&P 500 scored its seventh straight weekly gain, while the Nasdaq hit its fifth consecutive such rise. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.81% rose 0.8% to 2581 points, pushing weekly gains to 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.14% rose 0.1% to 23434 points, generating a weeklong gain of 0.5% . The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +2.20% jumped 2.2% to 6701 points, 1.1% for the week. Nick Note: this party will soon cmae to an abrupt and bitter end. We have a trade for that

Mattel swings to surprise loss; shares plunge 20%

Mattel Inc. MAT, -8.91% shares tanked 20% late after the toy maker reported a surprise loss and plunging sales for the third quarter, blaming it on Toys “R” Us bankruptcy, tighter retailer inventories, and “challenges” with its underperforming brands. Sales worldwide were down 13%, including a 22% decline in North American sales. The company also announced a cost-cutting plan and suspended dividend. Mattel said it lost $603 million, or $1.75 a share, in the quarter, versus a profit of $236 million, or 68 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Sales fell to $1.56 billion from $1.79 billion a year ago. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected earnings of 57 cents a share on sales of $1.8 billion. Among Mattel brands, sales of American Girl products fell 30%, while Fisher-Price sales fell 15%. Nick Note: another sign of the slow down. 70% of the US economy is consumer spending. that’s the people who are going to get whole $600 a year tax cut….MAYBE

Pending home sales drop to lowest in nearly 3 years

Pending home sales unchanged in September
Pending home sales unchanged in September 10:12 AM ET Thu, 26 Oct 2017 | 00:58 High prices and low supply are keeping potential home buyers at bay.

An index measuring signed contracts to buy existing homes was flat in September, according to the National Association of Realtors, but August’s reading was revised down. That puts the index at its lowest level since January 2015. It is down 3.5 percent from a year ago.

Pending home sales have fallen on an annual basis now for five of the past six months, and Realtors say they do not expect much improvement.

Nick Note: This is the REAL economy. This is NOT fake news. Look out below the biggest crash ever is comming

U.S. October new vehicle sales seen down 4 pct on year: J.D. Power and LMC

DETROIT (Reuters) – U.S. auto sales in October likely fell close to 4 percent from the same month in 2016, though automakers’ sales were buoyed by replacement of storm-damaged vehicles and record-high consumer discounts, industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said on Thursday. October U.S. new vehicle sales will be about 1.32 million units, a drop of almost 3.7 percent from 1.37 million units a year earlier, the consultancies saies The forecast was based on the first 17 selling days of October. Automakers will release U.S. sales results for the month on Nov. 1 Retail sales to consumers, which do not include multiple fleet sales to rental agencies, businesses and government, were also set to decline more than 4 percent in October.Despite the lofty consumer discounts, the average new vehicle sold in October spent 75 days in inventory. This was the longest since July 2009, during the height of the Great Recession. Nick Note: Car sales a great leading indicator flashing it warning signs

First reading on third-quarter GDP up 3.0%, vs 2.5% rise expected

The U.S. economy unexpectedly maintained a brisk pace of growth in the third quarter. An increase in inventory investment and a smaller trade deficit offset a hurricane-related slowdown in consumer spending and a decline in construction. Gross domestic product increased at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the July-September period after expanding at a 3.1 percent pace in the second quarter, Nick Note: Inventory growth drove this report and Hurricane government spending.

Iraqi Kurdistan offers to freeze referendum results to defuse crisis with Baghdad

  • The Kurdistan Regional Government offered to freeze the results of an earlier referendum on independence from Iraq, according to a statement
  • The statement also called for an immediate ceasefire and a halt to all military operations in the northern region The Kurdistan Regional Government in a statement early on Wednesday offered to freeze the results of an earlier referendum on independence as part of an offer to defuse the crisis with the Iraqi central government in Baghdad.

    The statement also called for an immediate ceasefire and a halt to all military operations in the northern region. The KRG called for an open dialogue between Erbil and Baghdad based on the country’s constitution. Nick Note: This takes the heat off. Oil markets were concerned that the Norther Iraqi flows would be stopped. i think will ratchet down the tensions between the Kurd’s and Baghdad.

World’s largest money manager sees a ‘market setback’ if tax reform doesn’t pass

Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock.
Cameron Costa | CNBC Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock. BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink believes the stock market’s next big move will depend on the fate of the GOP tax-reform plan.

“Policy has proven to be disappointing so far. I think if we get tax reform, which I think we’re going to get fourth quarter or the first quarter … I think the market will see another leg up,” Fink said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “If we did not get tax reform, we would have a market setback.” The S&P 500 has rallied 20 percent since the Nov. 8 election through Monday. Fink, who oversees $5.7 trillion as head of the world’s largest money manager, explained why he thinks the market will drop if the legislation doesn’t go forward. “That would really disprove if we can get anything done in Washington. It would put a real negative psychology onto the U.S. markets,” he said. Fink appeared from Riyadh, from the sidelines of the Future Investment Initiative, a conference presented by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. Nick Note: Even of we get tax reform the markets will still crash. Once everyone realizes its a nothing burger. And it will vastly increase the yearly Budget Deficit

Markets are ‘overexuberant’ as risks mount, economist warns

If you’re looking for a bearish warning on U.S. stocks and a long list of things that could go wrong, economist Vicky Pryce has delivered. There are many issues that could help bring about an end to the buoyant mood, Pryce added, as she showed her “Problems abound” slide pictured below.

Her top concerns include

A greater likelihood of protectionist policies due to Brexit and President Trump’s “America First” stance;

Tepid growth in median incomes;

High debt levels in China, Greece and other countries;

Geopolitical tensions with North Korea and Mideast nations; and

Political uncertainty in Germany, France, Spain, Italy and Austria.

Nick Note: consider the above the short list. I am warning you again. A massive stock market wipe out is right around the corner. I am Begging you prepare yourself for the greatest stock market wipe out ever. And the greatest great depression of them all.

And see: Why one chart watcher says stocks are finally ready for a pullback

 

 

Why the Fed could derail the hottest trade since the election

Trading Nation: Financials hit 10-year high
Banks have been on a tear, but one portfolio manager warns the very thing that propped them up could soon take them down.

Financials is the best performing sector since the election, surging more than 30 percent and hovering near a 10-year high. Chad Morganlander of Washington Crossing Advisors says the banks could soon face one obstacle that prevents them from rallying even further.

“Going forward in the next 6 to 9 months, we do believe there will be negative headwinds, like a flattening of the yield curve as the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates,” said Morganlander.

Commercial banks make money off the difference between what they pay for short-term deposits and what they earn by making long-term loans. As the difference between the short- and long-term rates narrow, banks’ ability to make money suffers. Nick Note: The yield cure will soon flatten and then invert. And when that happens bankers will be jumping out of windows.

Democrats’ money haul stuns Republicans

Democrats rake in cash: Politico writes Democratic candidates are reporting historic early fundraising totals, alarming Republican strategists. Animated by opposition to Trump and GOP congressional majorities, at least 162 Democratic candidates in 82 Republican-held districts have raised more than. $100,000 so far this year, according to a Politico analysis of Federal Election Commission data. That’s about four times as many candidates as House Democrats had at this point before the 2016 or 2014 elections, Politico says. It’s more than twice as many as Republicans had running at this point eight years ago. Nick Note: Pay attention here. The public are really really worried about Donald Trump. And they are voting with their wallets. The Republicans better be damned worried. The democrat platform will be simple. Elect me and ill get rid of President Trump

Time to worry? Trump promises ‘no change’ for 401(k) plans in tax overhaul

‘It stays!’ president says after report about capping contributions

President Donald Trump said Monday there’d be “no change” for 401(k) plans in a tax overhaul. But a bill hasn’t yet been released.

President Donald Trump said early Monday there’d be “no change” to 401(k) plans, as his administration and Congress push to enact a tax-reform package this year. In a tweet, Trump said “This has always been a great and popular middle class tax break that works, and it stays!”

Trump’s tweet follows a report last week in The Wall Street Journal that there are proposals about capping the amount that Americans may contribute before taxes to 401(k) plans — to as little as $2,400 per year — and individual retirement accounts, as Republicans look for ways to generate revenue to support cutting individual taxes. Trump’s promise comes as lawmakers are continuing to write tax-policy legislation, and have only publicly released a framework. Many of the details — including on retirement plans — remain to be filled in. The framework says tax reform will aim to “maintain or raise retirement plan participation of workers and the resources available for retirement.” Trump’s tweet may not be the final word on 401(k) plans and tax reform. On another hot-button issue, health care, Trump has lately given mixed signals and stirred confusion about his position. Last week, he commended work by Sens. Lamar Alexander and Patty Murray on a deal to stabilize Obamacare insurance markets. But later on Twitter, he didn’t offer support for the senators’ bill. Nick Note: I have warned for years to get your money out of ALL retirement accounts. They are not tax free but tax deferred. And after the Tax Break for Billionaires gets passed. Budget deficits will soar. And they will come a hunting for more taxes and retirement accounts are low hanging fruit.

 

The S&P just broke a remarkable streak that could signal the late innings for this bull market

The S&P 500 just posted a historic winning streak, but some market participants are predicting that the long-running bull market could be on its last legs. According to Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, the S&P 500 has now gone 242 trading sessions without a 3 percent pullback — its longest streak ever and topping the previous record of 241 days set in 1995. Since the most recent streak began, the S&P has posted more than 20 percent returns over that period of time.

“We are in the third and final phase [of the classic Dow Theory], which is suggesting through the use of parallel channel that there is room towards 3,000 depending on the angle of ascent,” he explained. The Dow Theory refers to three primary phases — accumulation, participation and distribution — which underpin a major market trend.

“This is the quietest, in terms of a range, stock market on a monthly basis back to as far as 1905,” he said. “We’re [trading] at about 4.5 percent monthly high to low range, that’s the quietest in history.”“You’re just diversifying away all risk, meaning the underlying stocks are much riskier than the aggregate looks like,” she explained.

She added that the last time correlations were this low, they preceded the 2001 dot-com bubble that sent the market tumbling.

Nick Note: this will end very very basely. Make sure you have your ducks in a row. the end of the greatest Hyper Rally ever is upon us,

Senate’s McConnell says tax bill should be revenue neutral

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said on Sunday he has not abandoned his longtime goal of making sure any tax cuts are revenue neutral, saying the growth estimates in the Republican tax reform plan will offset the cuts.Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell speaks to reporters following a policy luncheon on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Eric Thayer  The Trump administration’s tax plan promises up to $6 trillion in tax cuts but will increase the federal deficit by $1.5 trillion over the next decade. Asked on CNN’s “State of the Union” if it abandons the revenue-neutral goal, McConnell said: “No, actually we’re not because that’s a rather conservative estimate of how much growth you’ll get out of this pro-growth tax reform.” Nick Note: BULLSHIT! Don’t be fooled this tax break bonanza for billionaires and mega corporation who will not spend i thin dime on the economy is a budget buster. It will be the biggest economic disaster ever.

Catalonia independence: Puigdemont ‘will not accept’ Rajoy plan

In a statement, he described the imposition of direct rule as the worst attack on Catalonia’s institutions since the Franco dictatorship. Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy’s plans include the removal of Catalonia’s leaders, and curbs on its parliament. It follows the independence referendum that went ahead despite being banned by Spain’s Constitutional Court. Mr Puigdemont said the Spanish government was acting against the democratic will of Catalans after refusing all offers of dialogue. He said he would call for a session in the Catalan parliament to debate a response to Mr Rajoy’s plans. Addressing European citizens in English, he added that the European Union’s founding values were “at risk in Catalonia”. Nick Note: Bye Bye European Union and good riddance. First England, Now Catalonia in Spain and soon Italy

Italy’s 2 richest regions seek more autonomy from Rome

MILAN (AP) — Voters in the wealthy northern Italian regions of Lombardy and Veneto are heading to the polls to decide if they want to seek greater autonomy from Rome, riding a tide of self-determination that is sweeping global politics. While the twin referendums Sunday are non-binding, a resounding “yes” vote would give the presidents of the neighboring regions more leverage in negotiations to seek a greater share of tax revenue and to grab responsibility from Rome. The leaders want more powers in areas such as security, migration, education and the environment. Even though the referendums — which are approved by Italy’s constitutional court — don’t seek independence, the autonomy drive is a powerful threat to Rome’s authority. Together, Veneto and Lombardy account for 30 percent of GDP and nearly one-quarter of the nation’s electorate. Both regions are run by the anti-migrant, anti-Europe Northern League, which has long given up its founding goal of secession as it seeks a national profile. Also supporting the referendum is former Premier Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and the populist 5-Star Movement. The Italian constitution already grants varying levels of autonomy to five regions in recognition of their special status: the largely German-speaking Trentino-Alto Adige; the French-speaking Aosta; the islands of Sardinia and Sicily; and the region of Friuli-Venezia Giulia for its position on the border with then-Yugoslavia as a Cold War hedge. These votes Sunday are the first referendums to pose the question to voters, while Emilia Romagna, a center-left region, has recently opened talks with Rome on greater autonomy without a popular vote. Nick Note: This is really about the crack up of the European Self destructing Union